McLaren Park Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
McLaren Park is a 313-acre park on the city's southeast edge — its second-largest, after Golden Gate — and the residential streets immediately surrounding it. Less manicured than its bigger sibling, it features hilly grassland, an amphitheater, and a working-class character distinct from the rest of San Francisco's park-adjacent neighborhoods.
McLaren Park had a structurally quiet June 2026 — two signals total, both pointing in the same direction. Theft from vehicle registered a below-trend signal, and burglary has reached zero incidents in the current 12-month window, qualifying as a zero-event signal. No spikes or rare events surfaced.
The theft-from-vehicle drop carries the most weight: the trailing 12-month total is 5 incidents, down 70.6% from 17 in the prior 12 months, against a baseline mean of 30.43. Burglary's 12-month total has gone from 6 to 0, a -100.0% shift year over year. Motor vehicle theft and aggravated assault both stayed within range — 9 and 8 incidents respectively over the current 12 months, neither crossing an anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 5 incidents — about 84% below the 30 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How McLaren Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Seacliff
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above McLaren Park's 5.
Open page →Presidio
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above McLaren Park's 5.
Open page →Treasure Island
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above McLaren Park's 5.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for McLaren Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.