Haight Ashbury Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Haight Ashbury — known simply as 'the Haight' — is the neighborhood synonymous with the 1960s counterculture and the 1967 Summer of Love. Today its colorful Victorians, vintage clothing shops, music stores like Amoeba Records, and the green slope of Buena Vista Park retain a bohemian, slightly faded character.
Three categories moved in Haight Ashbury this June — two one-month below-trend signals, one sustained structural shift, and a zero-event signal. The structural story is motor vehicle theft, which appears in the top signals both as a single-month drop and as a multi-month sustained shift downward. That combination points to a genuine change in volume, not just a quiet June.
Motor vehicle theft is down 38.5% over the trailing 12 months — 56 incidents against a prior-year total of 91 — and sits well below its multi-year baseline of 123.32. Aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, and the 12-month total there has fallen 51.7% year-over-year, from 29 to 14. Every other tracked category — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, vandalism, arson — was within its normal range for the period.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 56 incidents — about 55% below the 123 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 59% below the 34 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 39% from 91 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Haight Ashbury compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Outer Mission
56 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Haight Ashbury's 56.
Open page →Marina
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Haight Ashbury's 56.
Open page →Noe Valley
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Haight Ashbury's 56.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Haight Ashbury, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.