Haight Ashbury Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Haight Ashbury — known simply as 'the Haight' — is the neighborhood synonymous with the 1960s counterculture and the 1967 Summer of Love. Today its colorful Victorians, vintage clothing shops, music stores like Amoeba Records, and the green slope of Buena Vista Park retain a bohemian, slightly faded character.
Haight Ashbury's March 2026 briefing is shaped by broad, downward movement across crime categories — four total signals, all of them declines. Three categories registered one-month below-trend signals and one registered as a longer-term sustained shift. No spikes and no rare events surfaced.
Aggravated assault is the sharpest move: 7 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 34.33, and down 78.1% against the prior 12-month period of 32 incidents. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below trend as well — the latter is down 27.8% year-over-year, 117 incidents vs. 162 in the prior period. Sexual assault recorded zero incidents in the current 12 months, down from 5 in the prior year. The remaining categories — burglary, other larceny, vandalism, and robbery — were either within range or moving in the opposite direction, with robbery up 80.0% year-over-year (27 vs. 15 incidents), the one counter-trend worth watching.
Notable signals 3
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 7 incidents — about 80% below the 34 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 48% below the 125 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 117 incidents — about 75% below the 464 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 117, down 28% from 162 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Haight Ashbury compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Japantown
7 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Haight Ashbury's 7.
Open page →Treasure Island
7 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Haight Ashbury's 7.
Open page →Pacific Heights
8 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Haight Ashbury's 7.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Haight Ashbury, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.