Lone Mountain/USF Crime Rate Trends — San Francisco
Lone Mountain is a small residential district built around the University of San Francisco's hilltop campus and its distinctive St. Ignatius Church spires. The neighborhood mixes student housing with leafy single-family streets at the boundary of the Anza Vista, Inner Richmond, and Western Addition districts.
Six categories moved in Lone Mountain/USF this April — four ran below trend in the current month, two registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Motor vehicle theft leads the signals: the trailing 12-month total is 48 incidents against a baseline of 116.94, and down 37.7% versus the prior 12-month period of 77. Theft from vehicle and vandalism also ran below trend this month, with theft from vehicle off 43.1% year-over-year (82 current vs. 144 prior) and vandalism down 13.5% (64 vs. 74). The two sustained-shift signals point to structural change, not just a quiet April — the property-crime decline here has been building across multiple periods.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 48 incidents — about 59% below the 117 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 66% below the 240 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 64 incidents — about 37% below the 102 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 6 incidents — about 74% below the 23 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 82, down 43% from 144 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 48, down 38% from 77 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lone Mountain/USF compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Inner Sunset
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Lone Mountain/USF's 48.
Open page →Visitacion Valley
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Lone Mountain/USF's 48.
Open page →North Beach
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Lone Mountain/USF's 48.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lone Mountain/USF, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset on DataSF, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.