Millsmont homicide is the lead signal for June 2026 — a fresh spike that tops the Oakland rankings this month for the first time. No demoted lead carries over from prior months; this is a new story. The Millsmont signal is the sole upward move in a briefing otherwise dominated by sustained declines.
Citywide volume is down 17.1% against the prior 12 months — 27,067 incidents against 32,662 the year before. The signal mix reflects a broad-based decline: 56 below-trend signals and 51 sustained-shift signals across 35 neighborhoods, against a single spike. San Antonio and Fruitvale both registered robbery drops in the top five; Eastlake added a theft-from-vehicle decline. The overall direction is consistent and wide-ranging.
This is the first month Millsmont homicide has topped the Oakland rankings, which means it is too early to call it a trend. The broader structural picture — a sustained citywide decline with drops outnumbering spikes by a wide margin — holds. The Millsmont signal is worth tracking in the July briefing to see whether it persists or resolves as a single-month move.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 36% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 114[67–165] | 112 | 1.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 10[2–16] | 14 | 29.2% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 102[71–134] | 91 | 12.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 49[37–61] | 57 | 15.0% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 438[287–601] | 467 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 551[435–660] | 321 | 71.7% | MISS |
| Robbery | 113[42–183] | 88 | 28.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 33[22–43] | 30 | 8.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 262[0–596] | 106 | 146.9% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 187[0–400] | 121 | 54.4% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/june