Eastlake theft from vehicle fell 38% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest fresh signal in Oakland this month. Millsmont homicide was the prior month's lead, and while that category still registers as the top-ranked signal in the underlying data, the more structurally significant move this briefing is the broad drop in property crime across multiple neighborhoods, with Eastlake the clearest example.
Citywide volume is down 17.0% against the prior 12 months, 26,437 incidents against 31,847 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily skewed toward declines: 57 below-trend signals and 46 sustained-shift signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just one fresh spike. Robbery fell in both Elmhurst and San Antonio, and vandalism ran below trend in Seminary Park, reinforcing the breadth of the downward movement.
This is the first month Eastlake theft from vehicle has topped the rankings, so it is too early to read it as a sustained structural shift. The dominant story across July 2026 is the persistence of broad-based declines, with 104 total signals and only one counter-trend spike. If the robbery and theft-from-vehicle drops hold into August, they will begin to look like a durable pattern rather than a single quiet month.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 6 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (60%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 142[96–189] | 98 | 44.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 13[6–19] | 20 | 35.1% | MISS |
| Burglary | 165[132–198] | 91 | 81.8% | MISS |
| Homicide | 58[46–71] | 61 | 4.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 425[268–575] | 441 | 3.6% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 545[405–688] | 283 | 92.7% | MISS |
| Robbery | 90[21–165] | 79 | 13.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 30[21–40] | 40 | 23.9% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 323[0–666] | 78 | 314.6% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 311[119–526] | 113 | 175.4% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/july