Eastlake theft-from-vehicle fell 38% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal in Oakland this month and the first time this category has topped the city rankings. Millsmont homicide was the prior month's lead, and while that signal persists in the top five, the headline this briefing belongs to a different category and a different neighborhood.
Citywide volume is down 14.7% against the prior 12 months, 27,153 incidents against 31,846. The mix is heavily skewed toward declines: 57 below-trend signals and 46 sustained-shift signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just one spike. Robbery ran below trend in both Elmhurst and San Antonio, and Seminary Park registered a drop in vandalism, reinforcing how broad-based the downward move is this month.
With 104 total signals and only one fresh spike, July 2026 reads as a continuation of the multi-month decline rather than a structural break. The Millsmont homicide spike is the outlier to watch: it is the only category moving against the citywide direction. If it recurs in August, it becomes the story; for now, the dominant picture in Oakland is a broad, category-wide retreat in volume.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 7 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (70%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 142[96–189] | 98 | 44.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 13[6–19] | 20 | 35.1% | MISS |
| Burglary | 165[132–198] | 108 | 53.2% | MISS |
| Homicide | 58[46–71] | 61 | 4.4% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 425[268–575] | 452 | 6.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 545[405–688] | 419 | 30.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 90[21–165] | 80 | 12.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 30[21–40] | 41 | 25.8% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 323[0–666] | 127 | 154.6% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 311[119–526] | 155 | 100.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/july