Rockridge theft from vehicle is the headline signal this month — a sharp move above its multi-year baseline and the most prominent fresh signal in May 2026. Millsmont homicide has been the citywide lead category and remains prominent in the rankings, but the new story this briefing is the property-crime side: a theft-from-vehicle spike in a neighborhood that had been running quietly.
Citywide volume is down 18.5% against the prior 12 months — 27,449 incidents against 33,681 the year before. The signal mix is dominated by declines: 59 below-trend signals and 58 sustained-shift signals, against just 3 fresh spikes. Homicide surfaced in both Millsmont and Uptown this month, and Westlake arson registered a streak break — a category that had been consistently low is no longer trending that way.
The broader arc is still a multi-year volume decline, and 35 neighborhoods registering signals in a month with 121 tracked movements is consistent with that structural shift holding. The two homicide signals and the Rockridge theft-from-vehicle move are worth tracking in June — whether they represent isolated months or the start of a sustained change in direction is something the next briefing will either confirm or dismiss.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 38% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 133[86–181] | 101 | 31.2% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 14[7–21] | 12 | 17.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 132[102–163] | 119 | 10.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 57[45–69] | 57 | 0.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 446[292–592] | 515 | 13.4% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 484[367–598] | 469 | 3.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 82[9–154] | 82 | 0.1% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 34[24–44] | 20 | 68.6% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 374[9–770] | 297 | 25.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 224[15–429] | 251 | 10.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/may