Millsmont homicide is the dominant signal this August, up 127% against its multi-year baseline. That single spike stands out sharply in a month where every other notable signal in the top five is a decline. No demoted lead carries over from prior months, so this is a clean read: the category and neighborhood are new to the top position.
Citywide volume is down 17.9% against the prior 12 months, 25,835 incidents against 31,474 in the year before. The mix across 35 neighborhoods is heavily tilted toward declines: 61 below-trend signals and 49 sustained-shift signals, with just one spike in the entire breakdown. Eastlake theft-from-vehicle and Elmhurst robbery both ran well below trend, consistent with the broader direction.
The structural story in Oakland this month is the depth of the citywide decline, now substantial enough that a single Millsmont homicide spike is the lone counter-signal across 111 tracked moves. Whether that spike reflects a short-run cluster or the start of a sustained shift is the question September's data will begin to answer. The broader downward trend holds across nearly every other category and neighborhood in the briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 8 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (80%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 125[77–173] | 121 | 3.3% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 11[4–17] | 4 | 164.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 137[100–177] | 82 | 67.1% | MISS |
| Homicide | 66[54–78] | 67 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 373[229–517] | 503 | 25.9% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 568[436–715] | 257 | 121.0% | MISS |
| Robbery | 104[17–181] | 92 | 12.7% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 33[22–42] | 23 | 42.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 350[8–705] | 56 | 525.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 275[61–463] | 109 | 151.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/august