Millsmont homicide is the lead signal for February 2026 — a sharp above-trend move that also appears in Uptown, making homicide the only category with two neighborhoods in the top five this month. There is no recurring lead to displace; this is a fresh pattern, one month old, and it sits against a citywide backdrop that is otherwise running well below prior-year levels.
Oakland's citywide volume is down 20.4% against the prior 12 months — 28,638 incidents versus 35,974 — a substantial reduction. The signal mix is dominated by declines: 72 sustained-shift signals and 66 below-trend signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just 3 fresh spikes. Rockridge theft from vehicle is one of those three spikes, standing out in an otherwise down-trending property-crime picture.
The structural story in Oakland this month is a broad, sustained pullback in volume — 141 total signals, heavily weighted toward drops — with a narrow but notable homicide cluster cutting against the grain. San Antonio robbery and Brookfield Village motor vehicle theft both ran below trend, consistent with the wider pattern. The homicide moves in Millsmont and Uptown are worth tracking in March to determine whether they represent a brief cluster or the start of a sustained shift.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 40% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 92[40–143] | 111 | 16.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 9[2–15] | 7 | 22.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 120[91–150] | 118 | 1.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 64[51–75] | 59 | 8.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 386[235–539] | 439 | 12.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 543[421–659] | 502 | 8.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 134[25–231] | 99 | 35.1% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 27[17–36] | 28 | 4.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 535[9–1065] | 347 | 54.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 66[0–246] | 281 | 76.7% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “February 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/february