Rockridge theft from vehicle is the lead signal this month — a sharp move against its multi-year baseline that edges out the homicide patterns in the underlying rankings. Millsmont homicide had been the top-ranked category last month, but the lead category shifts this briefing from homicide to property crime. Homicide remains the active backdrop: both Millsmont and Uptown registered spikes in the top five.
Citywide volume is down 20.4% against the prior 12 months — 29,249 incidents against 36,756. The mix leans heavily toward improvement: 74 below-trend signals and 72 sustained-shift signals account for nearly all of the 149 total, against just 3 fresh spikes across 35 neighborhoods. Robbery in San Antonio and vandalism in Seminary Park both ran below trend, reinforcing the broader directional pattern.
The 20.4% year-over-year decline is the structural story — it has held across multiple briefings and the signal composition this month doesn't break it. The Rockridge theft-from-vehicle move is the one category to watch: it's a single-month result without an established run, and the next briefing will show whether it extends or reverts.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 40% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/january