Archived snapshotJune 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Oakland · monthly briefing

Oakland Crime Rate — June 2025

Adams Point vandalism kept falling as the city ran 31% lighter year-over-year.

Adams Point vandalism is down sharply — the strongest individual signal in Oakland this month. That drop displaces Elmhurst other-larceny from the lead position, though Elmhurst's pattern remains active: the same neighborhood-category combo topped last month's rankings and continues to show elevated activity in June 2025.

Citywide volume is down 31.4% against the prior 12 months, 32,627 incidents against 47,529. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 109 sustained-shift signals and 64 below-trend signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just 5 fresh spikes. The spikes that did register are concentrated in other-larceny — Seminary Park, Piedmont Pines, and Maxwell Park all appear alongside Elmhurst in the top five, all in the same category.

The concentration of other-larceny spikes across four distinct neighborhoods is the pattern to watch. That breadth — Elmhurst, Seminary Park, Piedmont Pines, Maxwell Park, and Dimond District all registering above-trend signals in the same bucket — is unusual against a backdrop where the citywide trend is otherwise running well below prior-year levels. The structural decline holds, but the other-larceny cluster is a new feature of this briefing.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYVANDALISM · ADAMS POINT · 24-MO COUNT
01836μ 8.8 · σ 3.6 · trailing 12-mo2023-072025-06ARCHIVED
Adams Point vandalism, monthly count over 24 months ending in June 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is June. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “June 2025Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2025/june