Elmhurst other larceny is the dominant signal this month — a sharp above-trend move that sits at the top of a five-neighborhood sweep of the same category. Seminary Park, Piedmont Pines, Dimond District, and Maxwell Park all registered other-larceny spikes as well, making this the clearest concentrated pattern in the May 2025 briefing. No prior recurring lead is being displaced; this is a fresh development.
Citywide volume is down 31.3% against the prior 12 months — 33,657 incidents against 49,008 the year before. Despite that broad decline, the signal mix this month is notable: 5 spikes against 59 below-trend signals and 100 sustained-shift signals, with 35 neighborhoods crossing the anomaly threshold. The other-larceny spikes stand out precisely because the surrounding environment is otherwise tilted heavily toward improvement.
The five-neighborhood other-larceny cluster is new — lead run length is 1 month — so there is no multi-month pattern yet to confirm or dismiss. With 100 sustained-shift signals still in place, the structural citywide decline holds. The cluster in the eastern and hillside neighborhoods is the one variable to track in the June briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 36% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2025 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2025/may