Archived snapshotJuly 2025 · narrative + chart preserved as published · live data has moved on
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Oakland · monthly briefing

Oakland Crime Rate — July 2025

Seminary Park other larceny ran 56% above its multi-year baseline.

Seminary Park other larceny rose sharply against its multi-year baseline, the strongest individual signal in Oakland this briefing. The same category moved in four additional neighborhoods — Piedmont Pines, Maxwell Park, Elmhurst, and Dimond District all appeared in the top five — making other larceny a broad, geographically distributed pattern rather than an isolated pocket.

Citywide volume is down 30.5% against the prior 12 months, 31,795 incidents against 45,728 in the year before. Despite that headline decline, the anomaly mix shows some tension: 107 sustained-shift signals and 64 below-trend signals sit alongside 5 fresh spikes, all of them concentrated in the other-larceny category. Thirty-five neighborhoods registered at least one signal.

The structural story this month is the divergence between a still-declining overall volume and a cluster of other-larceny moves that run against that trend. This is the first month the other-larceny cross-neighborhood pattern has held the lead position — one month is not a sustained reversal, but the geographic spread across five neighborhoods makes it the pattern to track in August.

FIG 1 · LEAD ANOMALYOTHER LARCENY · SEMINARY PARK · 24-MO COUNT
0917μ 8.8 · σ 3.8 · trailing 12-mo2023-082025-07ARCHIVED
Seminary Park other larceny, monthly count over 24 months ending in July 2025. The dashed line is the trailing-12-month mean for context. The final bar (highlighted) is July. Frozen view as published.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

CITEPublic Analyst.ai, “July 2025Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2025/july