The dominant signal in April 2026 is a homicide spike in Millsmont, the most statistically distinct move in Oakland this month. Uptown also registered a homicide spike, making two neighborhoods with elevated homicide signals in the same briefing — an uncommon pairing. No demoted lead is in play; this category and these neighborhoods are new to the top of the rankings.
Citywide volume is down 20.4% against the prior 12 months — 27,769 incidents against 34,866 the year before. The overall mix is weighted toward declines: 63 sustained-shift signals and 57 below-trend signals, versus just 3 spikes. Rockridge theft-from-vehicle and a streak break in Financial District arson both appear in the top five, adding property-crime texture to a briefing otherwise led by violent signals.
The two homicide signals in Millsmont and Uptown are the most concrete thing to track forward. At the citywide level, the 20.4% year-over-year decline is a sustained structural move, not a single-month artifact — 63 sustained-shift signals across 35 neighborhoods support that read. The homicide cluster is the one new pattern that doesn't fit the broader downward trend and warrants attention in May's briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 40% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 114[67–159] | 113 | 0.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[5–18] | 11 | 5.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 139[111–166] | 146 | 4.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 58[46–71] | 50 | 15.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 423[270–575] | 469 | 9.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 515[403–624] | 506 | 1.9% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 104[29–171] | 115 | 10.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 26[17–36] | 20 | 31.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 551[0–1092] | 322 | 71.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 177[0–394] | 324 | 45.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/april