Homicide is the dominant signal this month. Millsmont recorded the sharpest single-neighborhood move in Oakland this briefing — a homicide spike that sits well above its multi-year baseline. Uptown also registered a homicide spike, making two distinct neighborhoods in the top five showing the same category move in the same month.
Citywide volume is down 20.2% against the prior 12 months — 27,817 incidents against 34,865 the year before. The signal mix is still tilted toward declines: 57 below-trend signals and 63 sustained-shift signals across 35 neighborhoods, with only 3 fresh spikes in the full dataset. Beyond the homicide signals, Rockridge theft-from-vehicle is running above baseline, and San Antonio robbery is below trend — a cross-category picture that suggests the overall decline is broad but uneven.
The two-neighborhood homicide pattern is the item to carry into May. The broader structural decline remains intact — this is not a month where the citywide totals reversed — but homicide activity concentrated across Millsmont and Uptown is a fresh development with no prior-month precedent in the rankings. Financial District arson also broke a prior streak, adding a secondary signal worth tracking in the next briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 40% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 114[67–159] | 115 | 1.2% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 12[5–18] | 11 | 5.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 139[111–166] | 152 | 8.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 58[46–71] | 50 | 15.7% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 423[270–575] | 473 | 10.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 515[403–624] | 517 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 104[29–171] | 115 | 10.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 26[17–36] | 22 | 19.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 551[0–1092] | 327 | 68.5% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 177[0–394] | 329 | 46.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2026/april