Oakland Crime Rate — January 2025

Eastlake other larceny is the lead signal for January 2025 — the sharpest single-neighborhood move in Oakland this month, with the category running well above its multi-year baseline. The pattern isn't isolated to Eastlake: Seminary Park, Elmhurst, and Maxwell Park all registered other-larceny spikes in the same month, making this a broad geographic cluster rather than a one-neighborhood anomaly.

Citywide, Oakland volume is down 30.2% against the prior 12 months — 36,756 incidents against 52,624 the year before. The signal mix reflects that structural decline: 69 sustained-shift signals and 43 below-trend signals against 8 fresh spikes across 35 neighborhoods. The Lockwood Gardens homicide spike is the one signal in the top five outside the larceny cluster, and it stands apart from the otherwise broad downward trend.

This is the first month Eastlake other larceny has held the lead position, so there's no multi-month run to contextualize it against. The wider other-larceny pattern across four neighborhoods is the thing to track in February — whether it consolidates into a sustained shift or reverts is an open question the current month's data can't answer.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 30% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.