Oakland Crime Rate — February 2025

Adams Point vandalism is the lead signal this month — a drop so far below its multi-year baseline it stands as the most prominent fresh movement in Oakland this briefing. Seminary Park other-larceny had been the top-ranked combination last month, and that category is still the dominant backdrop: other-larceny spikes appear in four of the top five positions. The headline this briefing shifts to a new bucket — vandalism — not because larceny reversed, but because a new category moved.

Citywide volume is down 30.9% against the prior 12 months — 35,974 incidents against 52,085 in the year before. The mix across 35 neighborhoods runs heavily toward declines: 82 sustained-shift signals and 47 below-trend signals against just 5 fresh spikes. Those spikes are concentrated: Elmhurst, Eastlake, Maxwell Park, and Dimond District all registered other-larceny increases, clustering the month's upward pressure into a single category.

The five-neighborhood other-larceny pattern is the signal worth tracking into March. Whether it holds as a localized cluster or broadens into additional categories is an open question the current data cannot resolve. The broader structural trend — a sustained citywide decline — remains intact at 134 total signals, most of them pointing down.

Sustained drops worth naming

Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.