Delridge other larceny is the sharpest signal in Seattle this month — a fresh spike with no prior run at the top of the rankings. With no recurring lead in the backdrop, this is a clean break: one neighborhood, one category, newly elevated above the rest of the month's movement.
Citywide volume is down 8.9% against the prior 12 months — 47,771 incidents against 52,427. The mix leans heavily toward sustained declines and quiet periods: 20 sustained-shift signals and 12 zero-event signals against a single spike. Northwest theft from vehicle and Rainier Valley robbery both ran below trend, while Magnolia arson registered a streak break — a category that had been holding a pattern now moving off it.
The structural direction in Seattle continues to be downward. One spike in 43 total signals across 20 neighborhoods is a thin read for any reversal. Delridge is worth watching for follow-through next month, but the broader picture this briefing is a city where most tracked categories are either flat or below their multi-year baselines.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 296[253–339] | 259 | 14.3% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 16[5–27] | 16 | 0.6% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 676[509–829] | 584 | 15.7% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[1–9] | 6 | 24.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 402[264–536] | 409 | 1.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 868[647–1079] | 1003 | 13.5% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 126[94–158] | 149 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 52[38–67] | 55 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 960[697–1216] | 994 | 3.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 569[471–664] | 504 | 12.9% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/may