Delridge other larceny is the month's lead signal — a fresh spike, the first time this neighborhood-category combination has topped Seattle's rankings. With no recurring lead to displace, the story this briefing is straightforward: a single sharp move in one neighborhood against an otherwise broad pattern of declines.
Citywide volume is down 8.8% against the prior 12 months, 47,835 incidents against 52,427. The signal mix reinforces that direction: 20 sustained-shift signals and 9 below-trend signals, against just one spike. Northwest theft from vehicle and Rainier Valley robbery both ran below trend, while Magnolia arson registered a streak break — a category that had been quiet broke out of its recent pattern.
The structural picture for Seattle continues to tilt toward lower volume. Twenty neighborhoods registered signals this month, but the overwhelming share of movement is downward. The Delridge other-larceny spike is the one counter-signal worth tracking; if it repeats in June, it becomes a sustained story. For now, it is a single month's reading.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 296[253–339] | 262 | 13.0% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 16[5–27] | 17 | 6.5% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 676[509–829] | 590 | 14.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 5[1–9] | 6 | 24.2% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 402[264–536] | 413 | 2.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 868[647–1079] | 1024 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 126[94–158] | 149 | 15.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 52[38–67] | 56 | 6.5% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 960[697–1216] | 1004 | 4.4% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 569[471–664] | 508 | 12.0% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/may