Rainier Valley Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Rainier Valley runs along Rainier Avenue South and the Link light rail line through southeast Seattle, including Columbia City, Hillman City, Brighton, and Rainier Beach. One of the most diverse parts of the city, anchored by the Columbia City landmark district, Othello and Rainier Beach light rail stations, and Lake Washington's Seward Park to the east.
Three categories moved in Rainier Valley this August, all three in the same direction and all three as sustained, multi-month structural shifts rather than one-off quiet months. The pattern is concentrated in property crime: theft from vehicle, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft have each been running below their prior-year levels for long enough that the data now reads as a structural change, not noise.
Theft from vehicle is down 33.7% over the trailing 12 months, 406 incidents against 612 the year before. Other larceny fell 27.3% on the same basis, 575 vs. 791. Motor vehicle theft is down 27.6%, 333 vs. 460. Vandalism and arson both moved less than 14% in either direction and neither registered as a notable signal. Every other tracked category was within its normal range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 406, down 34% from 612 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 575, down 27% from 791 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 333, down 28% from 460 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Rainier Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Central Area
311 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below Rainier Valley's 333.
Open page →North Central
359 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 above Rainier Valley's 333.
Open page →Queen Anne
295 incidents over the past 12 months — 38 below Rainier Valley's 333.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rainier Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.