Greater Duwamish vandalism is the standout signal this month — a below-trend drop that ranks as the most statistically pronounced move in Seattle's April 2026 briefing. Theft from vehicle in Northwest had been the category lead coming into this period, but with vandalism now the fresher signal across multiple neighborhoods, the briefing pivots there. The Northwest theft-from-vehicle pattern remains in the background as a persistent structural trend.
Citywide volume is down 9.3% against the prior 12 months — 47,751 incidents against 52,640 in the year before. The signal mix this month is tilted heavily toward declines and sustained downward shifts: 11 below-trend signals, 24 sustained-shift signals, and 12 zero-event signals across 20 neighborhoods. Rainier Valley robbery and Delridge robbery both appear in the top five, reinforcing that the downward movement is distributed across categories, not concentrated in one.
With no fresh spikes in the top five and the anomaly mix dominated by drops and sustained shifts, April 2026 reads as a continuation of an established declining trend rather than a new development. Vandalism in Greater Duwamish is the sharpest single move, but the broader picture — 47 total signals, all in the same direction — suggests the structural pattern from prior months is holding. Northwest vandalism also appears in the top five, making it a category worth tracking in May.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 46% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 247[205–289] | 246 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 13[4–22] | 12 | 8.5% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 619[465–771] | 626 | 1.1% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 1 | 247.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 386[247–510] | 338 | 14.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 819[603–1037] | 772 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 109[78–138] | 92 | 17.9% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 50[35–65] | 40 | 25.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 897[629–1154] | 825 | 8.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 503[401–602] | 451 | 11.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/april