Greater Duwamish vandalism fell sharply this month — the most prominent fresh signal in Seattle's June 2026 briefing. Delridge other-larceny has been the backdrop category heading into this month, but vandalism is the new mover, with Greater Duwamish leading and Northwest also registering a below-trend reading in the same category.
Citywide volume is down 9.3% against the prior 12 months — 47,348 incidents against 52,224 in the year before. The signal mix is weighted heavily toward declines: 25 sustained-shift signals and 11 below-trend signals across 20 neighborhoods, against just one fresh spike. Theft from vehicle fell in both Northwest and West Seattle, reinforcing the downward tilt in property crime this period.
This is the first month Greater Duwamish vandalism has topped the rankings, so it's too early to read it as a structural shift. Delridge other-larceny — which had been the lead category — has not reversed; it produced the month's lone spike. With 12 zero-event signals and the citywide total running well below last year, the broader pattern remains one of declining volume across Seattle.
Sustained drops worth naming
Arson ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 38% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 278[232–321] | 304 | 8.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 15[5–25] | 12 | 24.3% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 600[436–762] | 507 | 18.4% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 6[2–10] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 379[242–525] | 348 | 9.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 849[628–1079] | 852 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 128[97–159] | 128 | 0.1% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 54[39–68] | 56 | 3.9% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 864[581–1126] | 837 | 3.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 525[428–623] | 466 | 12.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — Seattle,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /seattle/2026/june