Magnolia Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Magnolia is a residential bluff peninsula northwest of downtown, separated from the rest of Seattle by Interbay and Salmon Bay. Anchored by the Magnolia Village commercial strip on West McGraw and Discovery Park — the city's largest park — at its northwestern tip.
August 2026 in Magnolia was structurally calm, with no tracked category registering a notable single-month anomaly. The month's only signal of note is a zero-event result for Homicide, meaning the trailing 12-month count is effectively flat at zero for that category. The 12-month picture beneath that surface is more mixed.
Burglary climbed to 110 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 44.7% against the prior year's 76. Other Larceny shows a similar upward drift, 96 incidents versus 71 the year before, a 35.2% rise. On the other side, Motor Vehicle Theft fell to 65 incidents from 97, down 33.0%, and Theft from Vehicle dropped 14.5% to 218. Robbery is nearly absent at 1 incident over 12 months, compared to 5 in the prior period. Aggravated Assault held flat at 8 incidents each year. No category triggered a single-month anomaly this period, so these year-over-year shifts reflect gradual structural movement rather than a sudden change in August itself.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Magnolia compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Magnolia, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.