Greater Duwamish Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Greater Duwamish covers the industrial flats along the Duwamish Waterway south of downtown, including SoDo, Georgetown, and South Park. The center of Seattle's port, manufacturing, and freight-rail activity, with Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park at the northern edge and Boeing Field to the south.
Five signals across Greater Duwamish in June 2026 — two one-month below-trend moves and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend this month; vandalism's 12-month total sits at 238 against a prior-year 321, down 25.9%. The larger structural story is theft from vehicle, which has sustained a -33.6% 12-month shift — 513 incidents against 773 the year prior — alongside motor vehicle theft at -31.9% and robbery at -16.1%. Aggravated assault is the one category that held roughly flat, up just 1.1% year over year.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 238 incidents — about 38% below the 381 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 175 incidents — about 45% below the 316 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 513, down 34% from 773 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 175, down 32% from 257 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 238, down 26% from 321 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Greater Duwamish compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
University District
243 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Greater Duwamish's 238.
Open page →Northeast
226 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Greater Duwamish's 238.
Open page →Northwest
224 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 below Greater Duwamish's 238.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Duwamish, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.