Greater Duwamish Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Greater Duwamish covers the industrial flats along the Duwamish Waterway south of downtown, including SoDo, Georgetown, and South Park. The center of Seattle's port, manufacturing, and freight-rail activity, with Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park at the northern edge and Boeing Field to the south.
Five categories moved in Greater Duwamish this August, all downward. Three registered as single-month below-trend signals, vandalism, motor vehicle theft, and burglary, while two showed sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad property-crime decline, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism leads the signals this month, with the trailing 12-month count at 228 against 299 the year before, a 23.7% reduction. Motor vehicle theft shows the steepest 12-month drop across the neighborhood, down 34.5% to 169 incidents from 258. Burglary and theft from vehicle also ran below trend, off 17.4% and 25.7% respectively, while other larceny was the one category that held flat, up just 1.1% year over year.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 228 incidents — about 40% below the 379 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 169 incidents — about 46% below the 314 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 256 incidents — about 28% below the 354 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 531, down 26% from 715 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 169, down 35% from 258 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Greater Duwamish compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Delridge
228 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Greater Duwamish's 228.
Open page →Northwest
218 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Greater Duwamish's 228.
Open page →Beacon Hill
239 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Greater Duwamish's 228.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Duwamish, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.