Greater Duwamish Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Greater Duwamish covers the industrial flats along the Duwamish Waterway south of downtown, including SoDo, Georgetown, and South Park. The center of Seattle's port, manufacturing, and freight-rail activity, with Lumen Field and T-Mobile Park at the northern edge and Boeing Field to the south.
Five categories moved in Greater Duwamish this March — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. Property crime is broadly down, with no fresh spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and motor vehicle theft both came in below trend this month; vandalism's current 12-month total of 258 sits against a baseline mean of 382.99 — a gap that has been widening. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are also down sharply over the trailing year, off 33.4% and 32.4% respectively against the prior 12 months, with theft from vehicle falling from 815 to 543. Aggravated assault is the lone counter-signal: up 20.5% year-over-year, 94 incidents in the current 12 months against 78 in the year before.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 258 incidents — about 33% below the 383 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 188 incidents — about 41% below the 318 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 543, down 33% from 815 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 188, down 32% from 278 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 258, down 27% from 352 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Greater Duwamish compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Delridge
261 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Greater Duwamish's 258.
Open page →University District
248 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Greater Duwamish's 258.
Open page →Northwest
241 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Greater Duwamish's 258.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Greater Duwamish, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.