Delridge Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Delridge is a long, narrow West Seattle neighborhood running south along Delridge Way SW between the West Seattle Bridge and White Center. Predominantly single-family residential with the Longfellow Creek greenbelt running through it; anchored by the Delridge Library and Community Center.
Seven categories moved in Delridge in September 2026: three below-trend drops, three sustained multi-month structural shifts, and one spike. The dominant shape is downward across property crime, but other larceny broke the pattern with a one-month spike that lands as the strongest signal this briefing.
Theft from vehicle and burglary both ran below trend, part of a broader pullback: theft from vehicle is down 28.4% over the trailing 12 months (305 incidents against 426 the prior year), and burglary is down 12.6% (242 vs. 277). Other larceny moved in the opposite direction, reaching 801 incidents in the current 12-month window against 836 the year before, a modest annual decline but enough of a single-month pop to register as an above-trend signal. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism, each showing sustained multi-month shifts, reinforce that the structural direction across most property categories is lower.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 801 incidents — about 29% above the 620 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 305 incidents — about 47% below the 579 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 242 incidents — about 22% below the 310 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 222 incidents — about 29% below the 312 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 195, down 46% from 359 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 305, down 28% from 426 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 222, down 30% from 315 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Delridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Northgate
685 incidents over the past 12 months — 116 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Northeast
669 incidents over the past 12 months — 132 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Ballard
631 incidents over the past 12 months — 170 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Delridgedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Delridge's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Seattle); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Delridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.