Delridge Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Delridge is a long, narrow West Seattle neighborhood running south along Delridge Way SW between the West Seattle Bridge and White Center. Predominantly single-family residential with the Longfellow Creek greenbelt running through it; anchored by the Delridge Library and Community Center.
Seven categories moved in Delridge in March 2026 — four as sustained structural shifts, two as one-month below-trend signals, and one as a fresh spike. The dominant shape is a broad multi-year decline across property crime, with other larceny as the exception that runs against that grain.
Other larceny registered the month's sharpest signal: 784 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline mean of 605.57, and up 9.2% year-over-year while most other categories fell. Burglary and robbery both ran below trend this month — robbery is down 43.9% over the trailing 12 months (46 incidents vs. 82 prior), and burglary is down 33.0% (236 vs. 352). Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle show similar sustained declines, leaving other larceny as the one category still moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 784 incidents — about 29% above the 606 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 236 incidents — about 24% below the 311 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 39% below the 75 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 258, down 40% from 428 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 352, down 29% from 496 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 236, down 33% from 352 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 46, down 44% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Delridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Northgate
752 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 below Delridge's 784.
Open page →Ballard
667 incidents over the past 12 months — 117 below Delridge's 784.
Open page →Northeast
654 incidents over the past 12 months — 130 below Delridge's 784.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Delridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.