Delridge Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Delridge is a long, narrow West Seattle neighborhood running south along Delridge Way SW between the West Seattle Bridge and White Center. Predominantly single-family residential with the Longfellow Creek greenbelt running through it; anchored by the Delridge Library and Community Center.
Seven categories moved in Delridge this April — four as sustained structural shifts and three as single-month below-trend signals. The overall shape is broadly and consistently downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Robbery, burglary, and theft from vehicle all ran below trend this month, and all three carry substantial 12-month declines behind them: robbery is down 46.9% against the prior year (43 incidents vs. 81), burglary down 26.2% (242 vs. 328), and theft from vehicle down 31.8% (339 vs. 497). Motor vehicle theft and aggravated assault are in similar territory, off 37.2% and 21.0% respectively over the same window. Other larceny is the one category moving the other direction, up 6.3% year-over-year, and worth watching as the structural declines elsewhere take hold.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 43% below the 75 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 242 incidents — about 22% below the 311 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 339 incidents — about 42% below the 587 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 253, down 37% from 403 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 339, down 32% from 497 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 242, down 26% from 328 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 47% from 81 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Delridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Queen Anne
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Delridge's 43.
Open page →West Seattle
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Delridge's 43.
Open page →Greater Duwamish
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Delridge's 43.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Delridge has spiked other larceny historically (11 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 0% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 11 | 0% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Delridge's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Seattle); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Delridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.