Delridge Crime Rate Trends — Seattle
Delridge is a long, narrow West Seattle neighborhood running south along Delridge Way SW between the West Seattle Bridge and White Center. Predominantly single-family residential with the Longfellow Creek greenbelt running through it; anchored by the Delridge Library and Community Center.
Six tracked signals surfaced in Delridge this August, a mix of one spike, two single-month drops, and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward across property crime, with the sustained-shift signals pointing to multi-year compression rather than a single quiet month. The one counter-move is other larceny, which registered as the month's strongest signal against that otherwise declining backdrop.
Theft from vehicle and burglary both ran below trend this month, consistent with the 12-month picture: theft from vehicle is down 31.7% year-over-year (310 incidents vs. 454), and burglary is down 14.0% (245 vs. 285). Other larceny moved in the opposite direction, 801 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 817 in the year before, a small gap on paper, but the current pace is running above its multi-year baseline, making it the outlier in an otherwise downward month. Motor vehicle theft and aggravated assault both show the steepest multi-year compression, down 53.2% and 21.4% respectively, and account for two of the three sustained-shift signals.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 801 incidents — about 30% above the 618 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 310 incidents — about 47% below the 581 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 245 incidents — about 21% below the 311 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 185, down 53% from 395 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 310, down 32% from 454 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 228, down 26% from 306 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Delridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Northgate
688 incidents over the past 12 months — 113 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Northeast
671 incidents over the past 12 months — 130 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Ballard
644 incidents over the past 12 months — 157 below Delridge's 801.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Delridgedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Delridge's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Seattle); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Delridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SPD's Crime Data feed on Seattle Open Data, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.