The freshest signal this August is a rare aggravated assault cluster in Lincoln Park, a low-volume neighborhood where a single incident registers as a statistical outlier. Lakeshore other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop, the category that led last month, and it still places at the top of the underlying rankings with a fresh spike this period. The headline this briefing, though, is the Lincoln Park rare-event signal, which is the first time it has topped the rankings.
Citywide volume is down 20.1% against the prior 12 months, 35,122 incidents against 43,943 in the year before. The mix is heavily skewed toward declines: 92 below-trend signals and 69 sustained-shift signals, against just one fresh spike. Twin Peaks robbery turned in a streak break, meaning a long run of suppressed counts has ended. South of Market and Pacific Heights both registered vandalism drops, continuing a pattern of falling property-damage counts across multiple neighborhoods.
With 179 total signals across 41 neighborhoods and almost no upward movement, August holds the structural shape of the past several months. The Lincoln Park rare event is worth monitoring for recurrence, but a single incident in a quiet neighborhood does not indicate a directional change. The broader decline holds, and absent a reversal in the Lakeshore other-larceny spike or the Twin Peaks streak break, the next briefing will likely read as a continuation.
Sustained drops worth naming
Burglary ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[170–272] | 173 | 25.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 33[17–48] | 34 | 4.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 359[196–529] | 301 | 19.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[1–8] | 3 | 44.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 209[98–321] | 275 | 23.9% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1214[900–1508] | 1143 | 6.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 166[96–242] | 148 | 12.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[2–22] | 7 | 67.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 858[0–1963] | 364 | 135.8% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 448[352–541] | 441 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/august