The most novel signal in August 2026 is a rare aggravated assault event in Lincoln Park, the category that tops the rankings this month. Lakeshore other-larceny had been the lead category last month and remains prominent in the top five, but the headline this briefing is a distinct crime type in a different neighborhood, making it the freshest read of the two.
Citywide volume is down 19.4% against the prior 12 months, 35,420 incidents against 43,943. The mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 69 sustained-shift signals and 92 below-trend signals across 41 neighborhoods, against just one spike and one rare-event signal. Twin Peaks robbery registered a streak break, and vandalism ran below trend in both South of Market and Pacific Heights, reinforcing the breadth of the decline.
The structural story in San Francisco remains one of broad, sustained reduction. With 179 total signals this month and only one fresh spike, August reads as continuation rather than inflection. The Lincoln Park rare event is worth tracking if volume builds in coming months, but a single incident carries limited weight on its own. The multi-month decline holds across nearly every tracked category.
Sustained drops worth naming
Burglary ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 218[170–272] | 176 | 23.8% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 33[17–48] | 34 | 4.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 359[196–529] | 324 | 10.8% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[1–8] | 3 | 44.1% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 209[98–321] | 285 | 26.5% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1214[900–1508] | 1264 | 4.0% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 166[96–242] | 151 | 9.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[2–22] | 8 | 46.3% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 858[0–1963] | 398 | 115.7% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 448[352–541] | 475 | 5.7% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/august