Lakeshore other-larceny rose 70% against its multi-year baseline, the sharpest single signal in San Francisco this month and the first time this neighborhood-category combination has topped the rankings. The backdrop is otherwise quiet: no demoted recurring lead this briefing, and the Lakeshore move stands out against a month in which nearly every other tracked signal pointed downward.
Citywide volume is down 19.7% against the prior 12 months, 34,486 incidents against 42,928 in the year before. Vandalism is running below trend across multiple neighborhoods, with South of Market, Pacific Heights, and Nob Hill each registering drops in the top five. Lincoln Park aggravated assault produced a rare-event signal, a single outlier cluster rather than a sustained shift, rounding out the notable moves.
With 88 below-trend signals and 60 sustained-shift signals against just one spike and one rare event across 41 neighborhoods, September 2026 reads as a continuation of the multi-year decline rather than a structural turning point. The Lakeshore move is worth tracking in October to see whether it holds or reverts; at one month, it is a data point, not a trend.
Sustained drops worth naming
Burglary ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 25% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 217[167–271] | 196 | 10.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 25[10–41] | 24 | 5.0% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 313[152–475] | 291 | 7.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–7] | 0 | — | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 213[92–341] | 261 | 18.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1145[831–1449] | 866 | 32.2% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 157[82–232] | 111 | 41.2% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 11[0–22] | 7 | 58.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 669[0–1641] | 273 | 145.1% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 404[312–494] | 410 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/september