Noe Valley other larceny is the top signal this month — a fresh spike against its multi-year baseline, the first time this neighborhood-category combination has led the citywide rankings. The broader backdrop is one of widespread decline: 91 below-trend signals and 77 sustained-shift signals spread across 41 neighborhoods, with just one fresh spike in the entire mix.
Citywide volume is down 21.2% against the prior 12 months — 35,476 incidents versus 45,007 the year before. Vandalism below-trend signals appeared across multiple neighborhoods this month, with South of Market, Pacific Heights, and Nob Hill all registering drops. Lincoln Park aggravated assault also appeared in the top five, as a streak break — a category that had been running consistently in one direction and shifted.
The Noe Valley other-larceny signal is new, not a continuation of a prior run, so it's worth watching in August to see whether it holds or reverts. The dominant structural story remains the same one that has defined recent months: a broad, multi-neighborhood decline with very few categories moving in the opposite direction.
Sustained drops worth naming
Burglary ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 9 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (90%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 225[173–273] | 201 | 11.9% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 26[11–43] | 27 | 2.1% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 398[229–566] | 273 | 45.7% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[0–8] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 284[166–404] | 271 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1127[823–1467] | 1062 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 154[77–226] | 114 | 35.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 12[1–23] | 4 | 206.4% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 884[0–1965] | 414 | 113.6% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 475[382–572] | 401 | 18.3% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — San Francisco,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /san-francisco/2026/july