Seminary Park other-larceny rose sharply against its multi-year baseline, the strongest individual signal in Oakland this month. The same pattern surfaced in Piedmont Pines and Maxwell Park — three neighborhoods, same category, same direction — which makes other-larceny the dominant story of September 2025 even as the citywide trend runs the other way.
Citywide volume is down 26.0% against the prior 12 months, 30,957 incidents against 41,831 in the prior year. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 93 sustained-shift signals and 65 below-trend signals across 35 neighborhoods, against just 3 spikes. Adams Point vandalism and Glenview aggravated assault both ran below trend, consistent with the broader downward pattern.
The other-larceny cluster across three adjacent or nearby neighborhoods is a first appearance at the top of the rankings — lead run length of 1 — so there is no prior streak to contextualize it against. The structural decline citywide is intact and broad-based. Whether the larceny cluster holds or resolves is the one concrete thing to track in October's briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Robbery ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2025 — Oakland,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /oakland/2025/september