Sexual assault rose sharply across New York in July 2026, with Brooklyn CD11, Bensonhurst posting the largest single signal at +117% against its multi-year baseline. Every position in the top five this month is the same category, spanning Brooklyn CD11, Bensonhurst, Queens CD7, Flushing / Whitestone, Queens CD8, Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows, Queens CD13, Queens Village / Cambria Heights, and Bronx CD8, Riverdale / Fieldston. That breadth makes this a category-level story, not a neighborhood-level one.
Citywide volume is down 16.2% against the prior 12 months, 229,646 incidents against 274,192 in the year before, a substantial reduction in overall crime. The signal mix reflects that: 103 sustained-shift signals and 74 below-trend signals dominate the 183 total, against just 5 spikes. All five spikes this month belong to sexual assault, which sets the July mix apart from recent briefings where spikes were distributed across categories.
This is the first month sexual assault has topped the citywide rankings. The category-wide pattern across five geographically separate neighborhoods is the main thing to watch heading into August. The broader citywide decline holds, but a single-category sweep of the top five, absent any prior-month run, is a structural signal that warrants tracking rather than treating as noise.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 0 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (0%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 2858[2667–3040] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Arson | 39[19–58] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Burglary | 1022[788–1275] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Homicide | 30[19–43] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1214[1026–1387] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 12490[10353–14648] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Robbery | 1340[1115–1572] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 1009[863–1147] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 935[691–1174] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Vandalism | 3020[2712–3302] | 0 | — | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — New York,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /new-york/2026/july