Sexual assault rose sharply across multiple New York neighborhoods in July 2026, with Brooklyn CD11 \ u2014 Bensonhurst posting the largest single signal at +117% above its multi-year baseline. Every top-five signal this briefing is the same category, and the breadth is notable: Brooklyn CD11 \ u2014 Bensonhurst, Queens CD7 \ u2014 Flushing / Whitestone, Queens CD8 \ u2014 Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows, Queens CD13 \ u2014 Queens Village / Cambria Heights, and Bronx CD8 \ u2014 Riverdale / Fieldston all moved in the same direction in the same month.
Citywide volume is down 16.2% against the prior 12 months, 229,646 incidents against 274,192 in the year before. That broad decline provides the backdrop for an otherwise concentrated month: 103 sustained-shift signals and 74 below-trend signals make up the bulk of the 183 total, with just 5 fresh spikes, all of them sexual assault. Fifty-nine neighborhoods registered at least one signal.
The sexual assault pattern this month is structurally different from a single-neighborhood anomaly. Five geographically separate neighborhoods, across Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx, moved in the same direction simultaneously. Whether this reflects a reporting shift, a seasonal pattern, or something else in the data is the open question for August; the signal is too consistent across districts to treat as noise.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 31% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 0 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (0%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 2858[2667–3040] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Arson | 39[19–58] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Burglary | 1022[788–1275] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Homicide | 30[19–43] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1214[1026–1387] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 12490[10353–14648] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Robbery | 1340[1115–1572] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 1009[863–1147] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 935[691–1174] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Vandalism | 3020[2712–3302] | 0 | — | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — New York,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /new-york/2026/july