Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Queens Village, Cambria Heights, Bellerose, Floral Park, Glen Oaks, Laurelton, Rosedale, and Brookville. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway, the Belt Parkway, the Hillside Avenue and Hempstead Avenue commercial corridors, and the LIRR's Hempstead Branch and Far Rockaway Branch.
Nine categories moved in Queens CD13 this month, a mix of four one-month below-trend signals and four sustained multi-month structural shifts, with one spike cutting against the otherwise downward grain. The structural picture across burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft is a genuine multi-year reset, not just a quiet month.
Burglary is down 39.8% over the trailing 12 months, 112 incidents against 186 in the prior year, and theft from vehicle is down 45.8%, 141 against 260. Vandalism also ran below trend in July and is down 13.0% on a 12-month basis. The one category moving in the opposite direction is sexual assault, which registered a spike this month and sits at 334 incidents in the current 12-month window against 336 in the prior year, a near-flat annual total that makes the single-month uptick the signal worth watching. Other larceny is the other outlier in the 12-month picture, up 28.2% year over year, 1,767 against 1,378, though it did not register a one-month anomaly this briefing.
Notable signals 5
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 334 incidents — about 114% above the 156 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 593 incidents — about 27% below the 818 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 46% below the 206 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 141 incidents — about 53% below the 301 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 121 incidents — about 28% below the 167 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,767, up 28% from 1,378 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 141, down 46% from 260 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 289, down 34% from 436 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 40% from 186 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
268 incidents over the past 12 months — 66 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 334.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
261 incidents over the past 12 months — 73 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 334.
Open page →Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone
255 incidents over the past 12 months — 79 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 334.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heightsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.