Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Queens Village, Cambria Heights, Bellerose, Floral Park, Glen Oaks, Laurelton, Rosedale, and Brookville. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway, the Belt Parkway, the Hillside Avenue and Hempstead Avenue commercial corridors, and the LIRR's Hempstead Branch and Far Rockaway Branch.
Seven categories moved in Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights this May — four running below trend in the current month, three reflecting structural sustained shifts over the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals in the mix.
Vandalism leads the month-level signals: the current 12-month total is 572, down from 572 against a baseline of 821.33 — a clear below-trend read. Robbery and burglary also ran below trend this month, and the 12-month picture reinforces the direction: robbery is down 21.0% year-over-year (113 vs. 143), burglary down 39.8% (115 vs. 191), and theft from vehicle down 49.6% (134 vs. 266). Other larceny is the one category moving the other way, up 19.6% over the prior 12 months (1,575 vs. 1,317), and stands out against an otherwise broadly declining backdrop.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 572 incidents — about 30% below the 821 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 113 incidents — about 33% below the 168 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 44% below the 206 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 134 incidents — about 56% below the 302 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 134, down 50% from 266 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 276, down 38% from 443 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 40% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
569 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 572.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
563 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 572.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
596 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 above Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 572.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.