Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Queens Village, Cambria Heights, Bellerose, Floral Park, Glen Oaks, Laurelton, Rosedale, and Brookville. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway, the Belt Parkway, the Hillside Avenue and Hempstead Avenue commercial corridors, and the LIRR's Hempstead Branch and Far Rockaway Branch.
Seven categories moved in Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights this month, split across four sustained shifts, two below-trend signals, and one fresh spike. The dominant structural story is a neighborhood pulling in two directions: property crime is broadly lower across multiple categories, while violent and larceny categories have moved meaningfully upward over the trailing 12 months.
Sexual assault is the sharpest signal this month — 358 incidents over the current 12-month window against a prior-year count of 304, up 17.8% year-over-year, and the lead spike this briefing. Burglary and vandalism both ran below trend, consistent with the sustained property-crime declines showing in the 12-month totals: burglary is down 30.7% (140 vs. 202) and theft from vehicle is down 28.5% (183 vs. 256) against the prior year. Other larceny moves in the opposite direction — up 31.3% to 1,780 incidents — and sits alongside sexual assault and aggravated assault as the categories where the 12-month trend is running above the year prior.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 358 incidents — about 143% above the 147 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 682 incidents — about 17% below the 825 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 140 incidents — about 32% below the 206 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,780, up 31% from 1,356 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 342, down 25% from 456 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 183, down 29% from 256 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 140, down 31% from 202 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
321 incidents over the past 12 months — 37 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 358.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
296 incidents over the past 12 months — 62 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 358.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
265 incidents over the past 12 months — 93 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 358.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights has spiked sexual assault historically (27 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 27 | 100% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 18 | 100% |
| Aggravated assault | 7 | 71.4% |
| Theft from vehicle | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.