Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Queens Village, Cambria Heights, Bellerose, Floral Park, Glen Oaks, Laurelton, Rosedale, and Brookville. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway, the Belt Parkway, the Hillside Avenue and Hempstead Avenue commercial corridors, and the LIRR's Hempstead Branch and Far Rockaway Branch.
Seven categories moved in Queens CD13 this August briefing, and the direction is almost uniformly downward. Four ran below trend in a single-month signal, and three are showing sustained multi-month structural shifts. Across property and violent crime alike, the pattern is broadly and consistently lower than prior-year levels.
Vandalism is the strongest signal, with the trailing 12 months at 531 incidents against 1,496 in the prior period for Other Larceny, though vandalism itself at 531 is well below its recent pace. Burglary has fallen 51.5% year-over-year, 94 incidents in the current 12 months against 194 in the prior year, and robbery is down 22.6%, from 137 to 106. Motor vehicle theft and aggravated assault add further depth to the downward picture, off 36.4% and 20.3% respectively. Everything else in the tracked set moved in the same direction or held close to range.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 531 incidents — about 35% below the 816 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 54% below the 206 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 36% below the 167 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 129 incidents — about 57% below the 301 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 129, down 51% from 261 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 94, down 52% from 194 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 260, down 36% from 409 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene
534 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 531.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
523 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 531.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
521 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's 531.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heightsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.