Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Flushing, Whitestone, College Point, Bay Terrace, Beechhurst, Malba, and Murray Hill. Anchored by the Flushing–Main Street 7 train terminus, downtown Flushing's commercial core, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park, Citi Field, the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and the Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridge approaches.
Six categories moved in Queens CD7 (Flushing / Whitestone) this August 2026 briefing, two as single-month below-trend signals and four as sustained, multi-month structural shifts. The dominant shape is downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend this month, and burglary's 12-month total has dropped to 261 from 481 the prior year, a 45.7% decline that reflects a structural shift rather than a single quiet period. Vandalism's trailing 12-month count of 469 is similarly well below its prior-year level of 666, down 29.6%, and theft from vehicle fell 42.4% over the same window. Robbery and aggravated assault add to the picture: both are in sustained decline, down 19.7% and 15.9% respectively against the prior 12 months.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 469 incidents — about 43% below the 821 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 174 incidents — about 61% below the 449 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,501, down 26% from 3,361 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 261, down 46% from 481 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 174, down 42% from 302 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 469, down 30% from 666 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
482 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 469.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
493 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 469.
Open page →Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel
442 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 469.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestonedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.