Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Flushing, Whitestone, College Point, Bay Terrace, Beechhurst, Malba, and Murray Hill. Anchored by the Flushing–Main Street 7 train terminus, downtown Flushing's commercial core, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park, Citi Field, the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and the Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridge approaches.
Five categories moved in Queens CD7 (Flushing / Whitestone) this July. Two ran below trend on a single-month basis, two registered as sustained structural shifts, and one produced a spike. The overall picture is mixed: property crime is broadly lower over the trailing 12 months, but the sexual assault spike stands out against an otherwise downward-trending neighborhood.
Sexual assault is the strongest signal this month, with 255 incidents in the current 12-month window against 219 in the prior year, a 16.4% rise. Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below their recent pace, part of a broader property-crime pullback that includes burglary down 36.2% (306 vs. 480) and other larceny down 19.5% (2,752 vs. 3,420) year over year. Those property declines are structural in scale, not just a quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 255 incidents — about 66% above the 154 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 529 incidents — about 36% below the 823 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 199 incidents — about 56% below the 451 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 306, down 36% from 480 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 199, down 34% from 301 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
261 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 255.
Open page →Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
268 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 255.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
240 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 255.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestonedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.