Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Flushing, Whitestone, College Point, Bay Terrace, Beechhurst, Malba, and Murray Hill. Anchored by the Flushing–Main Street 7 train terminus, downtown Flushing's commercial core, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park, Citi Field, the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and the Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridge approaches.
Eight categories moved in Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone this month — six as sustained structural shifts and two as single-month below-trend signals. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across property and violent crime: aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, robbery, other larceny, and vandalism all show 12-month totals well below the prior-year window. This is not a one-category story.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle are the two sharpest one-month signals, both running below trend. Vandalism's current 12-month total stands at 497 against a prior-year count of 717, a 30.7% decline. Robbery and aggravated assault reflect the sustained-shift pattern more clearly: robbery is down 26.8% year-over-year (183 vs. 250), and aggravated assault is down 37.2% (309 vs. 492). Sexual assault and motor vehicle theft both sit within a narrower range — up 3.4% and down 5.4%, respectively — and neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 497 incidents — about 40% below the 826 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 213 incidents — about 53% below the 455 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,573, down 25% from 3,442 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 309, down 37% from 492 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 497, down 31% from 717 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 311, down 34% from 472 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
490 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 497.
Open page →Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
487 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 497.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
527 incidents over the past 12 months — 30 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 497.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.