Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Flushing, Whitestone, College Point, Bay Terrace, Beechhurst, Malba, and Murray Hill. Anchored by the Flushing–Main Street 7 train terminus, downtown Flushing's commercial core, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park, Citi Field, the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and the Whitestone and Throgs Neck Bridge approaches.
Six categories moved in Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone this month, across a mixed signal set: two one-month below-trend drops, one spike, and three sustained multi-month structural shifts. The dominant shape is downward across property crime, but the sexual assault spike cuts against that grain and carries the most weight.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend — vandalism is down 25.7% over the trailing 12 months (575 vs. 774 prior year) and theft from vehicle is down 29.3% (261 vs. 369). Sexual assault is the outlier: 262 incidents in the current 12-month window against a prior-year count of 196, a 33.7% increase, and the current total sits well above its multi-year baseline of 151. The three sustained-shift signals indicate these are not single-month moves — the structural patterns across multiple categories have been building for longer than this briefing.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 262 incidents — about 73% above the 151 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 575 incidents — about 31% below the 829 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 261 incidents — about 43% below the 458 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 575, down 26% from 774 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 261, down 29% from 369 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 262, up 34% from 196 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
265 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 262.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
258 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 262.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
244 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone's 262.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.