Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel other-larceny is the fresh signal this month, the most statistically distinct single-neighborhood move in the June 2026 briefing. The prior month's lead — Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst sexual assault — remains an active spike in the top five, but sexual assault has now appeared as the dominant category across multiple neighborhoods, making the larceny move in Far Rockaway / Broad Channel the genuinely new story this period.
Citywide volume is down 7.8% against the prior 12 months — 253,872 incidents against 275,322. The signal mix is predominantly structural: 57 sustained-shift signals and 49 below-trend signals account for the bulk of the 122 total across 59 neighborhoods, with 15 fresh spikes. Sexual assault spikes are the most concentrated of those — Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone, Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows, and Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston all appear in the top five alongside Bensonhurst.
The sexual assault pattern across four separate neighborhoods in a single briefing is the structural question this month raises. The citywide decline is real and broad — 49 below-trend signals support that — but the concentration of same-category spikes across geographically distinct neighborhoods is a pattern worth tracking in the July briefing to determine whether it holds or resolves.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 27% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for June were issued from data through May 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 2748[1988–3428] | 2680 | 2.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 34[14–55] | 15 | 126.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 875[554–1205] | 861 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 23[9–36] | 19 | 22.3% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1037[727–1360] | 1007 | 3.0% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 11676[8112–15597] | 10054 | 16.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 1141[751–1517] | 1145 | 0.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 886[576–1187] | 827 | 7.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 705[417–982] | 729 | 3.3% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 2586[1871–3259] | 2891 | 10.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “June 2026 — New York,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /new-york/2026/june