Vandalism fell 44% in Manhattan CD12 , Washington Heights / Inwood against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single-district signal this briefing. The same category is also running below trend in Brooklyn CD15 , Sheepshead Bay and Brooklyn CD16 , Brownsville / Ocean Hill, making vandalism the most consistent downward mover this month. Sexual assault registered fresh spikes in Brooklyn CD11 , Bensonhurst and Queens CD8 , Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows, the new signal this briefing and the reason sexual assault, not vandalism, takes the structural spotlight despite the category's prior month at the top.
Citywide volume is down 24.6% against the prior 12 months, 205,738 incidents against 272,978 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 203 sustained-shift signals and 117 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes across 59 districts. That ratio, broad structural decline with only isolated upward moves, has defined the last several months of New York briefings.
The sexual assault spikes in Brooklyn CD11 , Bensonhurst and Queens CD8 , Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows are new this month and are worth tracking into September. The vandalism declines across three districts are notable in their consistency but are part of the same sustained-shift pattern driving the citywide trend. With 323 total signals and only 2 spikes, this briefing is largely a continuation of structural decline rather than a turning point in either direction.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 44% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 0 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (0%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 2724[2135–3319] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Arson | 27[6–49] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Burglary | 1000[692–1318] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Homicide | 27[13–40] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1193[926–1494] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 12201[8867–15402] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Robbery | 1282[929–1632] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 900[662–1137] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 907[636–1213] | 0 | — | MISS |
| Vandalism | 2715[2105–3309] | 0 | — | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — New York,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /new-york/2026/august