Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Bensonhurst and Bath Beach. Anchored by the 86th Street and 18th Avenue commercial corridors, the Belt Parkway along Gravesend Bay, the D and N subway lines, and the bungalow blocks of Bath Beach near the waterfront.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst this month: one spike, one drop, and one sustained shift. The dominant signal is Sexual Assault, which shows up twice in the top three — once as a single-month spike and once as a multi-month structural shift. That combination is the defining shape of March 2026 here: not a quiet month with one outlier, but a category showing pressure at both the short- and long-term horizon simultaneously.
Sexual Assault sits at 223 incidents over the current 12 months, up 42.9% against the prior 12-month total of 156, and well above its multi-year baseline of 108.28. Vandalism ran below trend — the one counterweight in an otherwise upward-tilting mix, with the 12-month count at 402 against 446 the year before, a 9.9% decline. Everything else across the tracked categories landed within range for the month.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 223 incidents — about 106% above the 108 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 402 incidents — about 21% below the 510 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Sexual Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 223, up 43% from 156 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
225 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 223.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
226 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 223.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
210 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 223.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (17 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 19 | 52.6% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 17 | 100% |
| Aggravated assault | 13 | 61.5% |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.