Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Bensonhurst and Bath Beach. Anchored by the 86th Street and 18th Avenue commercial corridors, the Belt Parkway along Gravesend Bay, the D and N subway lines, and the bungalow blocks of Bath Beach near the waterfront.
Six tracked signals shaped August 2026 in Brooklyn CD11, Bensonhurst: one single-month drop, one spike, and four sustained shifts. The structural story is broadly downward across property and violent categories, with one sharp exception in sexual assault, which stands apart from the otherwise declining trend.
Vandalism ran below trend this month, adding a short-term signal on top of a 12-month decline already at 300 incidents against 415 in the prior year, down 27.7%. Sexual assault is the counterweight: a single-month spike and a sustained multi-year shift, with the trailing 12 months reaching 226 incidents against 149 the year before, up 51.7%. Motor vehicle theft, other larceny, and theft from vehicle each posted sustained 12-month declines, down 52.5%, 31.9%, and 20.5% respectively, confirming that the downward structural shift across property crime predates this month.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 226 incidents — about 104% above the 111 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 300 incidents — about 41% below the 505 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,326, down 32% from 1,947 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 113, down 53% from 238 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 300, down 28% from 415 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 226, up 52% from 149 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 226.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
208 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 226.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
207 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 226.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurstdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.