Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Bensonhurst and Bath Beach. Anchored by the 86th Street and 18th Avenue commercial corridors, the Belt Parkway along Gravesend Bay, the D and N subway lines, and the bungalow blocks of Bath Beach near the waterfront.
Five signals surfaced in Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst this month: one below-trend drop, one spike, and three sustained shifts. The dominant structural story is a broad multi-year pullback across property crime, with other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all carrying sustained-shift signals pointing in the same direction. The single spike — sexual assault — cuts against that pattern and is the most consequential single-month move.
Sexual assault registered 200 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 109.56, a gap that makes it the standout signal regardless of the category's prior-year comparison. Other larceny is down 36.4% year-over-year (1,301 vs. 2,047), and vandalism is down 26.2% (327 vs. 443) — the latter also posting a one-month below-trend reading in May. Motor vehicle theft is down 40.8% over the same window. Every other tracked category ran within a narrow band of its prior-year level.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 200 incidents — about 83% above the 110 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 327 incidents — about 36% below the 508 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,301, down 36% from 2,047 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 135, down 41% from 228 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 327, down 26% from 443 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
201 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 200.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
204 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 200.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
206 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's 200.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurstdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.