Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Riverdale, Fieldston, Kingsbridge, Marble Hill, and Spuyton Duyvil. Anchored by Van Cortlandt Park's western edge, Wave Hill, the Henry Hudson Parkway, and the 1 train terminus at Van Cortlandt Park–242 Street.
Eight categories moved in Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston this May — five as sustained structural shifts, three as single-month below-trend signals. The overall shape is a broad, multi-year property crime contraction, not a one-month dip.
Theft from vehicle leads the specific signals: 112 incidents over the current 12 months against 199 in the prior year, a 43.7% reduction. Vandalism and burglary ran below trend in the same direction — vandalism down 40.7% year-over-year (270 vs. 455), burglary down 48.0% (79 vs. 152). Sexual assault is the one counter-move: up 16.4% over the trailing 12 months, 78 incidents against 67 in the prior period — the only category in Riverdale / Fieldston not tracking downward this briefing.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 48% below the 214 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 270 incidents — about 33% below the 403 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 79 incidents — about 33% below the 118 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 270, down 41% from 455 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 44% from 199 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 48% from 152 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 212, down 26% from 286 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 112.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 112.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 112.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.