Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Riverdale, Fieldston, Kingsbridge, Marble Hill, and Spuyton Duyvil. Anchored by Van Cortlandt Park's western edge, Wave Hill, the Henry Hudson Parkway, and the 1 train terminus at Van Cortlandt Park–242 Street.
Three categories moved in Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston this March: one single-month spike and two sustained structural shifts pulling in opposite directions. The spike is in sexual assault; the structural moves are burglary falling and other larceny rising — a split that keeps this month from reading as uniformly better or worse than prior periods.
Sexual assault sits at 91 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a baseline of 58.78, a gap wide enough to stand as the month's headline signal. Burglary has dropped 32.5% year-over-year — 102 incidents vs. 151 in the prior 12 months — a structural decline running across multiple months, not a one-month dip. Other larceny moved the other direction: up 29.0% to 1,845 incidents from 1,430. Robbery, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism all ran within range and did not register signals.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 91 incidents — about 55% above the 59 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,845, up 29% from 1,430 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, down 33% from 151 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
97 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 91.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
98 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 91.
Open page →Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 91.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.