Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Riverdale, Fieldston, Kingsbridge, Marble Hill, and Spuyton Duyvil. Anchored by Van Cortlandt Park's western edge, Wave Hill, the Henry Hudson Parkway, and the 1 train terminus at Van Cortlandt Park–242 Street.
Six categories moved in Bronx CD8, Riverdale / Fieldston this August, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and longer structural shifts. Three categories registered single-month drops, and three reflect multi-month sustained shifts, meaning the downward pattern in this neighborhood is not just an August story. Property crime is carrying the breadth: vandalism, theft from vehicle, and burglary all ran below trend this month, while the sustained-shift signals point to declines that have been building across the prior 12 months.
Vandalism is the strongest signal, with 234 incidents in the current 12 months against 429 in the year before, down 45.5%. Burglary is similarly moved, 72 incidents vs. 131 last year, down 45.0%. Theft from vehicle adds a third below-trend read, 112 vs. 168, down 33.3%. The rest of the tracked categories were within range, with other larceny essentially flat at 1,608 vs. 1,583 and sexual assault edging 7.6% above the prior year, the one counter-move in an otherwise broadly downward month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 234 incidents — about 42% below the 404 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 47% below the 213 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 39% below the 119 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 234, down 46% from 429 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 45% from 131 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 33% from 168 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 234.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
245 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 234.
Open page →Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park
250 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's 234.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldstondoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 1 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.