Windsor Square vandalism rose 109% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal this briefing and the reason the lead shifts away from larceny this month. Tarzana other-larceny had topped the rankings in the prior period, and it remains near the front of the list, but vandalism in Windsor Square is the category that moved most sharply in May 2026.
Citywide volume is down 22.2% against the prior 12 months, 103,792 incidents against 133,362. That broad decline is the structural backdrop against which the month's 10 spikes stand out. Other-larceny spikes appeared across multiple neighborhoods, Studio City, Beverlywood, and Woodland Hills among them, even as the overall mix runs heavily toward below-trend signals: 248 drops and 200 sustained-shift signals against those 10 spikes across 114 neighborhoods.
The Windsor Square vandalism move is new this month and has no prior run in the rankings, so it is a single-month signal without a confirmed trend behind it. The other-larceny pattern across several neighborhoods is more structurally notable and worth tracking into June. The citywide decline holds at a substantial margin, and the dominant story remains one of broad below-trend volume, with a cluster of larceny spikes as the main counterweight.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 26% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for May were issued from data through April 2026. 3 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (30%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1130[995–1265] | 1204 | 6.2% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 36[19–55] | 43 | 15.8% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 472[277–660] | 708 | 33.4% | MISS |
| Homicide | 7[0–19] | 27 | 75.2% | MISS |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 923[641–1186] | 1351 | 31.7% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1716[1302–2158] | 2705 | 36.6% | MISS |
| Robbery | 429[342–523] | 589 | 27.2% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 155[107–208] | 216 | 28.1% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1039[748–1313] | 1805 | 42.4% | MISS |
| Vandalism | 1711[1326–2077] | 1773 | 3.5% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “May 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/may