Windsor Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Windsor Square is a Central LA neighborhood between Hancock Park and Wilshire Boulevard, organized around the Larchmont commercial strip. A historic district of early-20th-century single-family homes; the official mayor's residence (Getty House) sits on Irving Boulevard.
Windsor Square had a focused March 2026 — one tracked signal across seven monitored categories, a vandalism spike against an otherwise stable backdrop. The rest of the property and violent crime picture moved only modestly year-over-year, with no drops, sustained shifts, or rare events registered.
Vandalism is the month's single notable move: 67 incidents in the trailing 12 months against a prior-year total of 50, a 34.0% rise year-over-year. Robbery ran in the opposite direction over the same window — down 56.2%, 7 incidents vs. 16 in the year before — while aggravated assault edged 38.5% above its prior-year count (18 vs. 13), though that category produced no tracked signal this month. Burglary, theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny all came in within a few percentage points of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 94% above the 35 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Windsor Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
West Los Angeles
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Windsor Square's 67.
Open page →Glassell Park
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Windsor Square's 67.
Open page →Tujunga
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Windsor Square's 67.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Windsor Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.