Studio City Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Studio City is a San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard at the foot of the Santa Monica Mountains. Anchored by the CBS Studio Center production lot, the Tujunga Wash, and the Universal City/Studio City Metro B Line station to the east.
Ten categories moved in Studio City this month — five ran below trend, one registered a spike, and four show sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with the other-larceny spike standing out against that backdrop as the one category moving in the opposite direction.
Other larceny is up 35.3% over the prior 12 months, reaching 514 incidents against a baseline of 348. Theft from vehicle moved the other way, down 32.2% to 253 incidents from 373 the year before, and sexual assault dropped 63.6% — 8 incidents over the current 12 months against 22 in the prior period. Burglary and vandalism are also well below prior-year levels, down 38.0% and 25.3% respectively, reinforcing that the four sustained-shift signals here reflect a multi-year structural decline in several property categories — not just a quiet month.
Notable signals 6
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 514 incidents — about 48% above the 348 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 253 incidents — about 47% below the 474 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 8 incidents — about 66% below the 24 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 21% below the 161 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 206 incidents — about 28% below the 286 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 27% below the 59 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 206, down 38% from 332 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 253, down 32% from 373 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 514, up 35% from 380 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 269, down 25% from 360 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Studio City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Beverly Grove
501 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Studio City's 514.
Open page →Northridge
569 incidents over the past 12 months — 55 above Studio City's 514.
Open page →Sherman Oaks
575 incidents over the past 12 months — 61 above Studio City's 514.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Studio City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.