Studio City Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Studio City is a San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard at the foot of the Santa Monica Mountains. Anchored by the CBS Studio Center production lot, the Tujunga Wash, and the Universal City/Studio City Metro B Line station to the east.
Ten tracked signals moved in Studio City this April — five below-trend drops, four sustained multi-month shifts, and one spike. The dominant structural story is downward across property crime, with burglary, theft from vehicle, and vandalism all running well below prior-year levels. The single countermove is other larceny, which is the month's sharpest signal and cuts against that otherwise broad decline.
Other larceny sits at 519 incidents over the trailing 12 months, up 34.1% against the prior 12-month total of 387 — the only category moving against the grain. Sexual assault and theft from vehicle both registered below-trend signals this month; theft from vehicle is down 30.3% year-over-year (246 vs. 353), while burglary has pulled back 38.7% over the same window (200 vs. 326). The four sustained-shift signals reflect structural changes that have been building across multiple months, not a single quiet period.
Notable signals 6
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 519 incidents — about 49% above the 349 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 5 incidents — about 79% below the 24 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 246 incidents — about 48% below the 472 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 200 incidents — about 30% below the 286 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 23% below the 161 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 29% below the 59 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 200, down 39% from 326 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 261, down 31% from 377 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 519, up 34% from 387 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 246, down 30% from 353 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Studio City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Northridge
537 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Studio City's 519.
Open page →Beverly Grove
492 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 below Studio City's 519.
Open page →Sherman Oaks
574 incidents over the past 12 months — 55 above Studio City's 519.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Studio City has spiked other larceny historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 18 | 83.3% |
| Burglary | 10 | 40% |
| Other larceny | 9 | 100% |
| Robbery | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Studio City's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Studio City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.