Tarzana other-larceny is the headline of April 2026, up 94% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal in Los Angeles this briefing. No prior lead carried over from last month, so this is a fresh top-of-rankings story with no recurring backdrop to set aside. Studio City and Beverlywood show the same category moving in the same direction, which makes the other-larceny pattern the structural theme of the month.
Citywide volume is down 24.3% against the prior 12 months, 102,989 incidents against 136,045 in the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 289 below-trend signals and 246 sustained-shift signals against just 9 spikes, across 114 neighborhoods. Windsor Square vandalism is the one fresh spike outside the other-larceny cluster, a standalone move rather than part of a broader pattern.
The citywide decline is the dominant structural fact this month. The other-larceny signals in Tarzana, Studio City, Beverlywood, and Woodland Hills are worth tracking in May to determine whether the category is moving across a broader set of neighborhoods or whether April is a short-run cluster. Everything else reads as a continuation of the multi-month downtrend.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 4 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (40%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1018[891–1150] | 1255 | 18.9% | MISS |
| Arson | 35[17–52] | 32 | 8.0% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 508[303–705] | 702 | 27.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 16[5–30] | 28 | 41.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 847[582–1094] | 1236 | 31.5% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 1648[1230–2075] | 2593 | 36.4% | MISS |
| Robbery | 421[327–512] | 555 | 24.1% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 151[102–201] | 229 | 34.1% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1081[819–1374] | 1900 | 43.1% | MISS |
| Vandalism | 1650[1293–1994] | 1677 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/april