Tarzana other larceny is the top signal in April 2026 — an above-trend move that tops the rankings for the first time this month. The category shows up across multiple neighborhoods in the top five, with Studio City, Beverlywood, and Woodland Hills all registering fresh spikes in the same bucket, making other larceny the defining pattern of this briefing.
Citywide volume is down 27.4% against the prior 12 months — 98,797 incidents against 136,047 in the year before. That decline is the structural backdrop. The signal mix, however, skews toward sustained below-trend movement: 246 sustained-shift signals and 289 below-trend signals against just 9 fresh spikes across 114 neighborhoods. Windsor Square vandalism is the one fresh spike outside the other-larceny cluster, standing apart from the dominant category.
The citywide decline is substantial and has been running for at least 12 months at this scale. The other-larceny concentration across Tarzana, Studio City, Beverlywood, and Woodland Hills is new this month and worth tracking — if it persists into May, it shifts from a single-month cluster to a sustained pattern. The structural downtrend otherwise holds.
Sustained drops worth naming
Sexual Assault ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 34% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 6 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (60%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1018[891–1150] | 774 | 31.6% | MISS |
| Arson | 35[17–52] | 20 | 72.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 508[303–705] | 376 | 35.2% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 16[5–30] | 9 | 81.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 847[582–1094] | 850 | 0.4% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1648[1230–2075] | 1511 | 9.1% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 421[327–512] | 324 | 30.0% | MISS |
| Sexual Assault | 151[102–201] | 87 | 73.4% | MISS |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1081[819–1374] | 1099 | 1.6% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 1650[1293–1994] | 965 | 71.0% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/april