Beverlywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Beverlywood is a Westside neighborhood between Pico Boulevard and the 10 freeway, organized around Robertson Boulevard. Predominantly Spanish Colonial Revival single-family homes on a tight grid; bordered by Cheviot Hills to the west and Pico-Robertson to the east.
Two signals moved in Beverlywood this April — a one-month spike and a structural sustained shift, both in the same category. Other larceny is doing most of the work this month, but the zero-event signal rounds out a three-part picture: one category elevated, one quiet, one absent.
Other larceny has doubled over the trailing 12 months — 46 incidents against 23 in the prior year, a 100.0% increase — and the spike signal confirms the current period is also running above its multi-year baseline. That sustained-shift classification means this isn't a single noisy month; the category has been structurally higher for long enough to register as a trend. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are also up on a 12-month basis (27.3% and 40.0%, respectively), while aggravated assault has pulled back to 6 incidents from 8, down 25.0% year over year.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 46 incidents — about 167% above the 17 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 46, up 100% from 23 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Beverlywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Tujunga
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Beverlywood's 46.
Open page →Atwater Village
44 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Beverlywood's 46.
Open page →Elysian Park
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Beverlywood's 46.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Beverlywood has spiked vandalism historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 55.6% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 9 | 55.6% |
| Other larceny | 9 | 0% |
| Theft from vehicle | 4 | — too few |
| Burglary | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Beverlywood's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Beverlywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.