Woodland Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Woodland Hills is a far western San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard and the Topanga Canyon Boulevard intersection. Anchored by the Westfield Topanga shopping mall, the Warner Center business district, and Pierce College.
Five categories moved in Woodland Hills this March — two single-month below-trend signals, one above-trend spike, and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is downward across property crime, with one clear counter-move in other larceny pulling the other direction.
Other larceny is the sharpest outlier: 977 incidents over the trailing 12 months against a multi-year baseline of 574.83, and up 24.1% against the prior year. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below trend on the month, and the 12-month totals back that up — motor vehicle theft is down 21.4% year-over-year (169 vs. 215), and theft from vehicle is down 8.2% (403 vs. 439). Burglary and robbery, while not in this month's top signals, show the steepest structural declines in the dataset: -37.9% and -38.2% respectively over the trailing 12 months.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 977 incidents — about 70% above the 575 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 169 incidents — about 29% below the 238 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 403 incidents — about 21% below the 510 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 234, down 38% from 377 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 55, down 38% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Woodland Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Westchester
935 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 below Woodland Hills's 977.
Open page →Van Nuys
731 incidents over the past 12 months — 246 below Woodland Hills's 977.
Open page →Koreatown
708 incidents over the past 12 months — 269 below Woodland Hills's 977.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Woodland Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.