Woodland Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Woodland Hills is a far western San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard and the Topanga Canyon Boulevard intersection. Anchored by the Westfield Topanga shopping mall, the Warner Center business district, and Pierce College.
Six categories moved in Woodland Hills this April — three below-trend drops, one spike, and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant signal is the other-larceny spike, but the broader picture is mixed: property crime is pulling in opposite directions, with burglary and theft categories running well below prior-year levels even as larceny climbs.
Other larceny is the sharpest move: 979 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 579, and up 23.0% against the prior 12-month period. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below trend this month, consistent with burglary's 12-month drop of 45.0% (209 incidents vs. 380 prior year). The two sustained-shift signals point to structural change in property crime patterns, not just a noisy single month.
Notable signals 4
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 979 incidents — about 69% above the 579 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 164 incidents — about 31% below the 237 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 402 incidents — about 21% below the 508 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 209 incidents — about 41% below the 353 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 209, down 45% from 380 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 53, down 38% from 86 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Woodland Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Westchester
882 incidents over the past 12 months — 97 below Woodland Hills's 979.
Open page →Van Nuys
734 incidents over the past 12 months — 245 below Woodland Hills's 979.
Open page →Koreatown
693 incidents over the past 12 months — 286 below Woodland Hills's 979.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Woodland Hills has spiked other larceny historically (16 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 26 | 96.2% |
| Burglary | 19 | 73.7% |
| Other larceny | 16 | 100% |
| Theft from vehicle | 6 | 100% |
| Robbery | 5 | 0% |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Woodland Hills's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Woodland Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.