Woodland Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Woodland Hills is a far western San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around Ventura Boulevard and the Topanga Canyon Boulevard intersection. Anchored by the Westfield Topanga shopping mall, the Warner Center business district, and Pierce College.
Five tracked signals surfaced in Woodland Hills this August: two spikes, one below-trend drop, and two sustained shifts. The dominant story is a broad structural rise in larceny and vehicle crime running alongside a steep, multi-year collapse in burglary. Those two forces are moving in opposite directions at the same time, and the gap between them is wide enough to be the defining feature of the month.
Other larceny is the strongest signal, up 36.7% over the prior 12 months, 1,155 incidents against 845. Aggravated assault also registered as a spike this month, with the trailing 12-month total at 135 against 115 the year before, a 17.4% rise. Burglary ran the other direction: 186 incidents in the current 12-month window against 344 in the prior period, down 45.9%, a sustained structural drop that stands out against the otherwise upward property-crime trend.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 1,155 incidents — about 118% above the 530 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 135 incidents — about 32% above the 102 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 186 incidents — about 46% below the 342 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,155, up 37% from 845 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 186, down 46% from 344 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Woodland Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Westchester
1,135 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 below Woodland Hills's 1,155.
Open page →Van Nuys
831 incidents over the past 12 months — 324 below Woodland Hills's 1,155.
Open page →Westlake
826 incidents over the past 12 months — 329 below Woodland Hills's 1,155.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Woodland Hillsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Woodland Hills's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Woodland Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.