Los Angeles Crime Rate — July 2026

Windsor Square vandalism more than doubled against its multi-year baseline, up 112%, the sharpest single-neighborhood move in Los Angeles this month. There is no recurring lead to displace: this is the first month Windsor Square vandalism has topped the citywide rankings, and it sits well above anything else in the top five.

Citywide volume is up 10.6% against the prior 12 months, 126,575 incidents against 114,491 in the year before. The signal mix is active: 36 fresh spikes against 33 below-trend signals, with 176 sustained-shift signals running in the background across 114 neighborhoods. Other larceny is the second story of the month, with Lincoln Heights, North Hills, and Woodland Hills all registering fresh spikes in that category.

The other-larceny pattern across multiple neighborhoods is the one to watch going forward. Three neighborhoods in the top five sharing the same category in the same month, all as fresh spikes rather than sustained trends, is a structural question for August's briefing. The citywide uptick, 10.6% above the prior year, marks a clear break from the prior trend, and the volume and spike mix together suggest this is not a quiet statistical wobble.

Sustained drops worth naming

Theft from Vehicle ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 7 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (70%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.