Windsor Square vandalism more than doubled against its multi-year baseline, up 112%, making it the sharpest single-neighborhood signal in Los Angeles this month. That move tops the rankings for the first time, with no recurring lead from prior months displacing it. The category and location are both fresh to the top of the briefing.
Citywide volume is up 10.3% against the prior 12 months, 126,330 incidents against 114,491. The signal mix is notably active: 36 above-trend spikes against 33 below-trend drops, plus 176 sustained-shift signals across 114 neighborhoods. Other larceny is the category with the broadest footprint this month, with Lincoln Heights, North Hills, and Woodland Hills each registering independent spikes in the top five.
The other-larceny pattern across multiple neighborhoods is the detail worth tracking into August. Four of the five top signals this month share the same category, spread across geographically distinct areas, which makes this less a localized story and more a category-wide move. Whether that breadth persists or contracts is the open question the next briefing will answer.
Sustained drops worth naming
Theft from Vehicle ran above trend in the trailing 12 months — 32% up from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2026. 7 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (70%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1287[1150–1418] | 1352 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 36[18–51] | 48 | 26.0% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 536[339–739] | 723 | 25.8% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 21[7–33] | 26 | 19.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1048[716–1364] | 1433 | 26.9% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 2087[1545–2632] | 2691 | 22.4% | MISS |
| Robbery | 536[426–635] | 620 | 13.6% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 186[130–241] | 222 | 16.1% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1217[838–1633] | 1884 | 35.4% | MISS |
| Vandalism | 1824[1485–2152] | 1921 | 5.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/july