Lincoln Heights other-larceny rose 85% against its multi-year baseline, the strongest single signal in Los Angeles this briefing and the first time this neighborhood-category combination has topped the rankings. Windsor Square vandalism had been the lead category entering August, but the fresh move in other-larceny across multiple neighborhoods is the dominant story this month.
Citywide volume is up 5.5% against the prior 12 months, 125,622 incidents against 119,079. The signal mix is broadly balanced, 37 above-trend signals against 36 below-trend, with 126 sustained-shift signals reinforcing a structural uptick rather than isolated noise. Other-larceny accounts for much of the activity: Lincoln Heights, Chinatown, and Chesterfield Square all registered spikes in the same category, pointing to a category-wide move rather than a single neighborhood anomaly.
The recurrence of other-larceny across three distinct neighborhoods in one briefing is the pattern to watch heading into September. Windsor Square vandalism dropped back to the second position after one month at the top, making its run short-lived for now. With 114 neighborhoods registering signals and the citywide total above the prior-year level for a sustained stretch, August reinforces a broad upward shift rather than marking a new turning point.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for August were issued from data through July 2026. 10 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 1398[1191–1622] | 1316 | 6.2% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 45[26–62] | 33 | 35.0% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 832[542–1118] | 728 | 14.3% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 26[15–38] | 20 | 31.8% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 1142[23–2268] | 1371 | 16.7% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 2343[1020–3576] | 2540 | 7.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 648[490–805] | 600 | 8.0% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 219[163–278] | 207 | 5.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 1372[136–2577] | 1765 | 22.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 1955[1568–2340] | 1776 | 10.1% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “August 2026 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2026/august