Lincoln Heights Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Lincoln Heights is a Northeast LA neighborhood across the Los Angeles River from Chinatown, organized around North Broadway and Daly Street. The oldest neighborhood outside Downtown; anchored by Lincoln Park, the historic Lincoln Heights Jail, and the Metro L Line's Lincoln/Cypress station.
Lincoln Heights logged eight tracked signals in March 2026 — four one-month below-trend moves and four sustained structural shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The month's shape is a broad, multi-category property crime decline with no countering spikes anywhere in the data.
Motor vehicle theft leads the specifics: the trailing 12-month total is 113, down 32.7% against the prior year's 168 and well below the multi-year baseline of 214.71. Theft from vehicle (78 incidents, down 36.1%) and vandalism (114, down 36.0%) followed the same pattern. Burglary ran even further below the prior period at 53.3% down, while aggravated assault and robbery each fell roughly 26% on a 12-month basis — every category but other larceny moved materially lower.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 113 incidents — about 47% below the 215 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 78 incidents — about 52% below the 161 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 114 incidents — about 28% below the 158 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 28 incidents — about 57% below the 64 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 114, down 36% from 178 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 53% from 60 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 113, down 33% from 168 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 36% from 122 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lincoln Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Canoga Park
113 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Lincoln Heights's 113.
Open page →Highland Park
115 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Lincoln Heights's 113.
Open page →Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Lincoln Heights's 113.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lincoln Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.