Chesterfield Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Chesterfield Square is a small South LA residential pocket organized around Western Avenue and Slauson, between Hyde Park and Vermont Square. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a quiet grid, with the Chesterfield Square shopping center on Western as the local commercial anchor.
Three signals surfaced in Chesterfield Square this April — two one-month spikes and one sustained structural shift. The spikes hit theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft; the sustained shift is also motor vehicle theft, meaning the category shows both a longer-term structural increase and a fresh above-trend month stacked on top of it.
Motor vehicle theft is up 48.9% over the prior 12 months — 137 incidents against 92 — the sharpest year-over-year move across any tracked category in the neighborhood. Theft from vehicle is also running above its multi-year baseline, with a 12-month total of 84 against a baseline of 56.68. The rest of the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, other larceny, and vandalism — all ran within range or below trend this month.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 84 incidents — about 48% above the 57 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 137 incidents — about 34% above the 102 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 137, up 49% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Chesterfield Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brentwood
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Chesterfield Square's 84.
Open page →El Sereno
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Chesterfield Square's 84.
Open page →Harvard Heights
86 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Chesterfield Square's 84.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Chesterfield Square has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (13 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 61.5% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 27 | 44.4% |
| Other larceny | 17 | 35.3% |
| Vandalism | 16 | 0% |
| Robbery | 14 | 0% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 13 | 61.5% |
| Aggravated assault | 11 | 0% |
| Burglary | 4 | — too few |
| Sexual assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Chesterfield Square's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chesterfield Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.