Chesterfield Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Chesterfield Square is a small South LA residential pocket organized around Western Avenue and Slauson, between Hyde Park and Vermont Square. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a quiet grid, with the Chesterfield Square shopping center on Western as the local commercial anchor.
Three categories spiked in Chesterfield Square this July: other larceny, theft from vehicle, and vandalism. No drops or sustained shifts registered, making this a narrow but pointed month, with all three signals pointing in the same direction.
Other larceny is the strongest of the three, with 103 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 75 in the year before, a 37.3% rise. Theft from vehicle is up 27.3% over the same window (84 incidents vs. 66), and motor vehicle theft has climbed 40.7% year-over-year to 114. Violent crime is moving the other way: aggravated assault is down 17.1% and sexual assault is down 41.2% against the prior 12 months. The July picture is one of rising property crime against a backdrop of falling violence.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 138% above the 43 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 84 incidents — about 65% above the 51 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 84% above the 60 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Chesterfield Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Vermont Knolls
98 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Chesterfield Square's 103.
Open page →West Los Angeles
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Chesterfield Square's 103.
Open page →El Sereno
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Chesterfield Square's 103.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Chesterfield Squaredoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
| Theft from vehicle | 1 | — too few |
| Vandalism | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Chesterfield Square's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chesterfield Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.