Chesterfield Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Chesterfield Square is a small South LA residential pocket organized around Western Avenue and Slauson, between Hyde Park and Vermont Square. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a quiet grid, with the Chesterfield Square shopping center on Western as the local commercial anchor.
Two categories spiked in Chesterfield Square this August: Other Larceny and Vandalism. Both are one-month above-trend signals against an otherwise mixed backdrop. The neighborhood's violent crime categories moved in the opposite direction, with multi-year 12-month totals running below the prior year across several buckets.
Other Larceny is the stronger of the two spikes, with 105 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 76 in the year before, a 38.2% rise. Vandalism added 113 incidents over the same window, up 6.6% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Aggravated Assault fell 12.3% (121 vs. 138), Sexual Assault dropped 31.2% (11 vs. 16), and Homicide sits at 3 incidents against 5 in the prior 12 months. The month's story is a split: property crime categories pushing up, violent crime categories pulling down.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 140% above the 44 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 113 incidents — about 86% above the 61 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Chesterfield Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
West Los Angeles
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Chesterfield Square's 105.
Open page →Harbor City
101 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Chesterfield Square's 105.
Open page →Vermont Knolls
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Chesterfield Square's 105.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Chesterfield Squaredoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
| Vandalism | 2 | — too few |
| Theft from vehicle | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Chesterfield Square's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chesterfield Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.