Walter Reed other-larceny is the sharpest single signal in Washington DC this briefing, a fresh spike with no prior run behind it. Colonial Village registered the same category move, making other-larceny the dominant new pattern across two neighborhoods this month. No demoted lead carries over from prior months — this is a clean break from recent briefing history.
Citywide volume is down 21.5% against the prior 12 months, 22,340 incidents versus 28,470 the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward declines: 53 sustained-shift signals and 29 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Petworth theft-from-vehicle and Mayfair aggravated assault both ran below trend, consistent with the broader citywide direction.
The 21.5% year-over-year reduction is the clearest story in March 2026 — structural and broad-based, not driven by one neighborhood. The other-larceny cluster in Walter Reed and Colonial Village is new enough to watch, but it sits against a backdrop of sustained citywide declines that have now held across multiple months.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 44% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for March were issued from data through February 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 52[26–81] | 117 | 55.4% | MISS |
| Burglary | 51[5–98] | 53 | 3.6% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 7[0–13] | 2 | 230.3% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 331[168–509] | 193 | 71.3% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 837[580–1105] | 926 | 9.6% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 68[0–162] | 109 | 37.3% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 6[0–16] | 3 | 94.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 314[91–521] | 228 | 37.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “March 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/march