Mayfair Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Mayfair is a Northeast residential neighborhood on the city's eastern edge, with single-family blocks and a mix of post-war apartment buildings along the Maryland border. The cluster includes Hillbrook and Mahaning Heights, two adjacent residential pockets that share the same suburban-feeling streetscape.
Five categories moved in Mayfair this June — three one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The shape of the month is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest move: 36 incidents over the current 12 months against a multi-year baseline of 107.18, and down 55.0% against the prior 12-month total of 80. Robbery also ran below trend, dropping 33.3% year-over-year (22 incidents vs. 33). Aggravated assault is the one counter-move in the top three, up 16.0% against the prior year — 29 incidents vs. 25 — though the absolute counts remain low relative to the property categories leading this briefing.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 66% below the 107 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 55% below the 49 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 32% below the 43 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 67% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 36, down 55% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mayfair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Navy Yard
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mayfair's 36.
Open page →Foggy Bottom
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Mayfair's 36.
Open page →Fairfax Village
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Mayfair's 36.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mayfair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.