Mayfair Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Mayfair is a Northeast residential neighborhood on the city's eastern edge, with single-family blocks and a mix of post-war apartment buildings along the Maryland border. The cluster includes Hillbrook and Mahaning Heights, two adjacent residential pockets that share the same suburban-feeling streetscape.
Three categories moved in Mayfair this September, one one-month below-trend signal and two multi-year sustained shifts. The structural story is vehicle-related property crime: both theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft have been running well below prior-year levels across a sustained window, not just a single quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is down 58.9% over the trailing 12 months, 30 incidents against 73 the year before, and the sustained-shift signal confirms that drop has held across multiple months. Motor vehicle theft tells a similar story, down 68.8% year-over-year, 30 incidents against 96. Robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, and other larceny all moved in the opposite direction on a 12-month basis, but none crossed an anomaly threshold this month, placing them within the normal range of variation.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 72% below the 106 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 30, down 69% from 96 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 30, down 59% from 73 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mayfair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Fairfax Village
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Mayfair's 30.
Open page →Barry Farm
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Mayfair's 30.
Open page →River Terrace
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Mayfair's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mayfair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.