Mayfair Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Mayfair is a Northeast residential neighborhood on the city's eastern edge, with single-family blocks and a mix of post-war apartment buildings along the Maryland border. The cluster includes Hillbrook and Mahaning Heights, two adjacent residential pockets that share the same suburban-feeling streetscape.
Five categories moved in Mayfair in April 2026 — three one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, and robbery each ran below trend this month. Aggravated assault is the sharpest single signal: 23 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 43.08, and down 37.8% against the prior-year period. Theft from vehicle tells a similar structural story — 39 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 94 the year before, a 58.5% difference — while robbery logged 22 incidents against 33, down 33.3%. Every other tracked category in Mayfair was also down against the prior 12 months; nothing moved in the opposite direction this period.
Notable signals 3
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 47% below the 43 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 64% below the 108 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 56% below the 50 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 57% from 120 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 59% from 94 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mayfair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Takoma
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mayfair's 23.
Open page →Barry Farm
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mayfair's 23.
Open page →Capitol Hill
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mayfair's 23.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mayfair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.