Mayfair Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Mayfair is a Northeast residential neighborhood on the city's eastern edge, with single-family blocks and a mix of post-war apartment buildings along the Maryland border. The cluster includes Hillbrook and Mahaning Heights, two adjacent residential pockets that share the same suburban-feeling streetscape.
Four categories moved in Mayfair this August: two registered single-month below-trend signals and two reflect structural multi-year shifts. The dominant story is a broad decline in vehicle-related property crime, with both a one-month drop and a sustained shift pointing the same direction for theft from vehicle.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest signal, down 57.3% over the trailing 12 months, 32 incidents against 75 in the prior year. Aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, part of a modest 12-month decline from 27 to 26. Motor vehicle theft tells a similar structural story, falling 72.1% year-over-year, 29 incidents against 104. Burglary and other larceny moved in the opposite direction but neither registered as an anomaly this month.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 70% below the 106 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 38% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 72% from 104 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 32, down 57% from 75 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mayfair compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Foggy Bottom
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Mayfair's 32.
Open page →Fairfax Village
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Mayfair's 32.
Open page →Navy Yard
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Mayfair's 32.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mayfair, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.