Walter Reed Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Walter Reed is the upper-Northwest neighborhood built on the redeveloped 110-acre former Walter Reed Army Medical Center campus, which closed in 2011 and is being converted to a mixed-use district of housing, retail, and offices along 16th Street and Georgia Avenue. The Parks at Walter Reed redevelopment is the area's primary identity, blending preserved historic buildings with new construction.
Walter Reed had a narrow month by signal count: two categories registered, one spike and one zero-event signal, with everything else within normal range. The spike is in Other Larceny, and it sits against a 12-month total that has already climbed well above the prior year.
Other Larceny reached 30 incidents over the current 12 months, up from 23 in the year before, a 30.4% increase year-over-year. That growth is the sharpest move in the neighborhood's recent data. On the other side, Theft from Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Theft both fell substantially: theft from vehicle is down 47.6% (11 incidents vs. 21) and motor vehicle theft is down 58.3% (5 vs. 12) against the prior 12 months. The net picture is a property-crime mix that is shifting category by category, with larceny rising while vehicle-related offenses contract.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 370% above the 6 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Walter Reed compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Spring Valley
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Walter Reed's 30.
Open page →Eastland Gardens
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Walter Reed's 30.
Open page →Saint Elizabeths
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Walter Reed's 30.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Walter Reeddoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Walter Reed's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Washington DC); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Walter Reed, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.