Capitol View Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Capitol View is the Southeast neighborhood east of the Anacostia, with rowhouses and small apartment buildings set on the rise above Benning Road. The cluster includes Marshall Heights and Benning Heights, residential pockets that share the same hilly, predominantly single-family character.
Three categories moved in Capitol View this September, and the shape is predominantly downward. One registered a single-month below-trend signal and two reflect structural, multi-month shifts rather than a one-time dip. The dominant direction across property crime is a sustained decrease.
Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are both showing multi-year structural declines: theft from vehicle is down 37.4% over the trailing 12 months (57 incidents vs. 91 prior), and motor vehicle theft has fallen 66.3% (69 incidents vs. 205 prior). Other larceny ran below trend this month, at 114 incidents over the current 12-month window against 144 in the year before, a 20.8% gap. Aggravated assault, at 51 incidents against 40 the prior year, is the one category moving in the opposite direction and sits outside the top three signals but is worth tracking in the months ahead.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 114 incidents — about 39% below the 188 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 66% from 205 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 57, down 37% from 91 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Capitol View compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
North Cleveland Park
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Capitol View's 114.
Open page →Chevy Chase DC
122 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Capitol View's 114.
Open page →Mayfair
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Capitol View's 114.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Capitol View, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.