Capitol View Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Capitol View is the Southeast neighborhood east of the Anacostia, with rowhouses and small apartment buildings set on the rise above Benning Road. The cluster includes Marshall Heights and Benning Heights, residential pockets that share the same hilly, predominantly single-family character.
Four signals emerged in Capitol View this June — two one-month below-trend readings and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a broad pull-back in violent and property crime, with robbery accounting for both a single-month drop and a multi-month sustained shift, suggesting the decline is not a one-month anomaly.
Robbery is the clearest story: the trailing 12-month total is 36, down 43.8% against the prior year's 64, and well below the multi-year baseline of 87.78. Other larceny also ran below trend this month, with the 12-month count at 124 versus 152 the prior year — a 18.4% decline. Motor vehicle theft shows the sharpest 12-month move in the data, down 64.6% to 84 from 237, though it did not register a signal this month, meaning the category is tracking within its more recent range rather than breaking new ground.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 59% below the 88 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 35% below the 190 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 84, down 65% from 237 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 36, down 44% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Capitol View compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
River Terrace
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Capitol View's 36.
Open page →Twining
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Capitol View's 36.
Open page →Dupont Circle
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Capitol View's 36.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Capitol View, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.