Capitol View Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Capitol View is the Southeast neighborhood east of the Anacostia, with rowhouses and small apartment buildings set on the rise above Benning Road. The cluster includes Marshall Heights and Benning Heights, residential pockets that share the same hilly, predominantly single-family character.
Two categories moved in Capitol View this August, one a single-month below-trend signal and one a structural multi-year shift. The month's shape is narrow but pointed: robbery ran below its recent trend, and motor vehicle theft has moved into sustained-shift territory, meaning the decrease isn't a one-month dip but a pattern holding across multiple months.
Robbery is at 38 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 55 in the prior year, a 30.9% reduction. Motor vehicle theft tells the more striking structural story: 66 incidents in the current 12-month window against 216 in the year before, a 69.4% reduction that qualifies as a sustained shift rather than noise. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault and theft from vehicle, stayed within its normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 56% below the 87 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 66, down 69% from 216 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Capitol View compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Southwest Waterfront
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Capitol View's 38.
Open page →Deanwood
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Capitol View's 38.
Open page →River Terrace
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Capitol View's 38.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Capitol View, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.