The month's most distinctive signal is a homicide streak break in Friendship Heights — a category that had been absent long enough to register as a rare-event pattern. That shift edges out a recurring other-larceny story: Walter Reed's other-larceny run has been the dominant category lead, and it remains active this month, with Colonial Village showing the same move in the top five.
Citywide volume is down 23.5% against the prior 12 months — 21,797 incidents against 28,505 the year before. The signal mix is heavily weighted toward sustained declines: 59 sustained-shift signals and 29 below-trend signals, against just 2 fresh spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Petworth theft-from-vehicle and Mayfair aggravated assault both ran below trend, reinforcing the broad direction.
The structural story in Washington DC this month is continuity. The two fresh spikes are the lowest count in recent briefings, and the homicide streak break in Friendship Heights is the one genuinely new category in the rankings. With other-larceny concentrated in multiple neighborhoods and the overall volume still well below prior-year levels, April is more confirmation than reversal.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 42% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for April were issued from data through March 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 77[47–105] | 104 | 26.4% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 48[0–92] | 59 | 19.0% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 7[0–13] | 13 | 48.9% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 433[231–636] | 143 | 202.5% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 849[575–1109] | 921 | 7.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 79[0–168] | 87 | 9.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 9[0–18] | 14 | 35.9% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 285[73–494] | 246 | 15.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “April 2026 — Washington DC,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /dc/2026/april