Washington DC Crime Rate — February 2026

The most novel signal in February 2026 is a streak break in Foggy Bottom homicide — a category that had run quietly for long enough that any movement registers. Walter Reed other-larceny has been the persistent backdrop, sitting at the top of the underlying rankings, but the demoted-lead category this month is other-larceny itself: it appears in three of the top five positions, making it a structural pattern rather than a fresh story.

Citywide volume is down 20.0% against the prior 12 months — 22,782 incidents against 28,464 the year before. The signal mix is weighted heavily toward sustained declines: 53 sustained-shift signals and 29 below-trend signals, against just 3 spikes across 41 neighborhoods. Walter Reed, Colonial Village, and Glover Park all registered other-larceny spikes, while Petworth theft-from-vehicle ran below trend.

With other-larceny dominating the top rankings across multiple neighborhoods simultaneously, the category itself is the story this month more than any single neighborhood. The Foggy Bottom homicide streak break is the one signal that stands apart from that pattern — one month in, not yet a trend, but worth tracking against March's data to see whether it holds or reverts.

Sustained drops worth naming

Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 42% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.

How last month's forecasts performed

Forecasts for February were issued from data through January 2026. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.

Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.