Colonial Village Crime Rate Trends — Washington DC
Colonial Village is a small upper-Northwest residential neighborhood along the 16th Street corridor, north of Rock Creek Park's eastern arm and just south of the Maryland line. The cluster also includes Shepherd Park and North Portal Estates, two adjacent residential pockets that share the same wooded, single-family character.
Two categories moved in Colonial Village this June — a single-month spike in other larceny and a streak break in aggravated assault. The signal count is narrow, but both categories are moving in the same direction as the 12-month trend, which makes the month more than a one-off.
Other larceny is the sharper story: 99 incidents over the current 12 months against 71 in the prior 12, a 39.4% rise year-over-year. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are also up on the trailing 12-month window — 14.5% and 14.8% respectively — so the larceny-category complex is broadly elevated, not isolated to one bucket. The aggravated assault streak break is the outlier: a category surfacing after a gap, worth watching but not yet a trend.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 99 incidents — about 151% above the 39 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
First incident since March 2024 — a 2-year gap ended this month.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Colonial Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mayfair
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Colonial Village's 99.
Open page →Chevy Chase DC
89 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Colonial Village's 99.
Open page →Woodridge
83 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Colonial Village's 99.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Colonial Villagedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Colonial Village's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Washington DC); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Colonial Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from DC Open Data — MPD's per-year Crime Incidents layers on the DCGIS ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 8 UCR Part 1 categories (vandalism and arson are not exposed in MPD's public feed and are excluded). The feed covers 2018-current and updates daily. Aggregated to neighborhood cluster × category × month, with each cluster page identified by its colloquial lead constituent (Adams Morgan, Petworth, Capitol Hill, etc.) rather than the numbered 'Cluster N' identifier.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.